Novel prognostic score for colorectal necrosis requiring emergency surgery.

Purpose: Colorectal necrosis is a serious condition associated with high morbidity and mortality. We investigated the clinical features and prognostic factors of patients who underwent emergency surgery for colorectal necrosis.

Methods: Data from 40 patients who underwent surgery for colorectal necrosis were reviewed retrospectively to assess the various clinical and operative factors and risk factors for hospital mortality.

Results: The Kaplan-Meier method showed that total colectomy, a platelet count < 100,000/μL, a prothrombin time-international normalized ratio ≥ 1.5, creatine kinase ≥ 566 U/L, lactate ≥ 22.8 mg/dL, base excess < - 12 mmol/L, platelet-lymphocyte ratio < 321, and C-reactive protein/albumin ratio < 1.0 were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Multivariate analyses identified that a platelet count < 100,000/μL (hazard ratio = 7.101, p = 0.0070) and base excess < -12 mmol/L (hazard ratio = 3.663, p = 0.0464) were independent predictive factors for hospital mortality in patients with colorectal necrosis. We established a novel prognostic score based on platelet count, creatine kinase, and base excess. Patients with a novel prognostic score ≥ 4 had significantly poorer survival rates than patients with a score ≤ 3 (0.0% vs. 73.4%, p < 0.001).

Conclusions: A platelet count < 100,000/μL and base excess < - 12 mmol/L are associated with a poor prognosis for patients with colorectal necrosis. This novel prognostic score may be a more accurate prognostic factor for patients with colorectal necrosis.