Integration of remote sensing and machine learning algorithm for agricultural drought early warning over Genale Dawa river basin, Ethiopia

Drought remains a menace in the Horn of Africa; as a result, the Ethiopia’s Genale Dawa River Basin is one of the most vulnerable to agricultural drought. Hence, this study integrates remote sensing and machine learning algorithm for early warning identification through assessment and prediction of index-based agricultural drought over the basin. To track the severity of the drought in the basin from 2003 to 2023, a range of high-resolution satellite imagery output indexes were used, including the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Thermal Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI). Additionally, the Artificial Neural Network machine learning technique was used to predict agricultural drought VHI for the period of 2028 and 2033. Results depict that during the 2023 period, 25% of severe drought and 18% of extreme drought countered at the lower part of the basin at Dolo ado and Chereti regions. A high TCI value was found that around 23.24% under extreme drought and low precipitation countered in areas of Moyale, Dolo ado, Dolobay, Afder, and Bure lower than 3.57 mm per month. Similarly, increment of severe drought from 24.26% to 24.58% and 16.53% to 16.58% of extreme drought value of VHI might be experienced during the 2028 and 2033 period respectively in the area of Mada Wolabu, Dolo ado, Dodola, Gore, Gidir, and Rayitu. The findings of this study are significantly essential for the institutes located particularly in the basin as they will allow them to adapt drought-coping mechanisms and decision-making easily.