Atmospheric Forcing Dominates the Interannual Variability of Convection Strength in the Irminger Sea

Transformation of light to dense waters by atmospheric cooling is key to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Subpolar Gyre. Convection in the center of the Irminger Gyre contributes to the formation of the densest waters east of Greenland. We present a 19-year (2002–2020) weekly time series of hydrography and convection in the central Irminger Sea based on (bi-)daily mooring profiles supplemented with Argo profiles. A 70-year annual time series of shipboard hydrography shows that this mooring period is representative of longer-term variability. The depth of convection varies strongly from winter to winter (288–1,500 dbar), with a mean March mixed layer depth (MLD) of 470 dbar and a mean maximum density reached of 27.70 ± 0.05 kg m⁻³. The densification of the water column by local convection directly impacts the sea surface height in the center of the Irminger Gyre and thus large-scale circulation patterns. Both the observations and a Price-Weller-Pinkel mixed layer model analysis show that the main cause of interannual variability in MLD is the strength of the winter atmospheric surface forcing. Its role is three times as important as that of the strength of the maximum stratification in the preceding summer. Strong stratification as a result of a fresh surface anomaly similar to the one observed in 2010 can weaken convection by approximately 170 m on average, but changes in surface forcing will need to be taken into account as well when considering the evolution of Irminger Sea convection under climate change.