能源商品基准的动态价格相互作用:危机时期多重分形分析的见解

IF 3.3 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2024.130314
C.M.C. Inacio Jr , Ladislav Kristoufek , S.A. David
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了围绕新冠肺炎大流行和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突的四个关键时期,西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格与各种能源商品(包括布伦特原油期货、布伦特现货价格、美国柴油期货和含氧混合原油)之间的动态相互关系。采用多重分形去趋势波动互相关分析(MFXDFA)方法,研究了静态和动态赫斯特指数,以检验这些价格关系的多重分形行为。结果表明,在2019冠状病毒病大流行最严重期间,价格持久性显著增加,随后在俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突期间下降,这表明受近期全球危机影响,价格正在转向新的动态。这项研究有助于理解原油和成品油市场的演变动态,揭示重大地缘政治和全球健康事件如何以重要方式重塑市场行为和定价结构。
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Dynamic price interactions in energy commodities benchmarks: Insights from multifractal analysis during crisis periods
This paper investigates the dynamic interrelationships between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices and various energy commodities including Brent crude oil futures, Brent spot prices, American diesel futures, and the Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending, across four critical periods surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Employing the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFXDFA) methodology, the study analyzes both the static and dynamic Hurst exponents to examine the multifractal behaviors of these price relationships. Results indicate a pronounced increase in price persistence during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a subsequent decrease during the Russia–Ukraine conflict, suggesting a shift toward a new price dynamic influenced by recent global crises. This research contributes to understanding the evolving dynamics in crude oil and refined products markets, shedding light on how major geopolitical and global health events can reshape market behavior and pricing structures in significant ways.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
9.10%
发文量
852
审稿时长
6.6 months
期刊介绍: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Recognized by the European Physical Society Physica A publishes research in the field of statistical mechanics and its applications. Statistical mechanics sets out to explain the behaviour of macroscopic systems by studying the statistical properties of their microscopic constituents. Applications of the techniques of statistical mechanics are widespread, and include: applications to physical systems such as solids, liquids and gases; applications to chemical and biological systems (colloids, interfaces, complex fluids, polymers and biopolymers, cell physics); and other interdisciplinary applications to for instance biological, economical and sociological systems.
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