Evaluating the merit of carbon credits: Is there a lack of effectiveness in transitioning from direct payments for ecosystem services to REDD+ community-based incentives?

Rich in biodiversity, Tumaco is a key area for REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) projects focused on reducing deforestation and promoting sustainable land use. Cacao farming plays a vital role in the local economy, offering an opportunity to align livelihoods with conservation. This study evaluates the impact of REDD + carbon payments versus PNIS (Integral Program for the Substitution of Illicit Crops) direct payments in replacing illicit crops and supporting peacebuilding efforts. It also examines how farmers' awareness of environmental payment schemes, particularly carbon credits, relates to income levels, and how climate conditions, especially rainfall patterns, influence perceptions of these initiatives. Farmers' understanding of climate change strongly affects the success of REDD+, with increased awareness of carbon credits expected to improve income and climate resilience. However, around 20% of farmers below the poverty line lack knowledge of carbon credits, threatening REDD + effectiveness. Current estimates suggest only a 5.76% likelihood of high awareness of carbon credits, rising to 19.43% under extreme climate conditions, stressing the need for targeted education efforts.