Prediction of success in sports based on assumed individual genetic predisposition: lack of association with the C > T variant in the ACTN3 gene.

Background: Prediction of sports success (sports talent) based on individual genetic characteristics is the main goal of sports genetics/genomics. Most often, markers of predisposition to speed-strength sports, or endurance, are single-nucleotide variants in various parts of DNA. One of the most studied variants is the C/T variant in the ACTN3 gene. The accumulated data on the association of this variant with success in various sports is sufficient to conduct a meta-analysis. The purpose of the present review is to analyze the prognostic utility of the data presented in the literature on molecular genetic markers of genetic predisposition to achieve outstanding sports results using the example of the C > T variant of ACTN3 (rs1815739).

Main body: A total of 42 studies were included in the analysis, with a total number of 41,054 individuals (of which 10,442 were in the athlete group and 30,612 in the control group). For each study included in the analysis, the agreement of genotype frequencies with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was tested, as well as the presence of an excess or deficit of heterozygotes. Prediction intervals for the overall effect size (OR-odds ratio) was estimated. Both in the subgroups of athletes and controls, a significant difference F_IS from zero was found, suggesting inbreeding or outbreeding, as well as a very wide 95% CI for F_IS. A meta-analysis was conducted for dominant, codominant, and recessive inheritance models. The obtained ORs and their 95% CIs were in the range of almost negligible values or have very wide CIs. The evaluation for the recessive model showed 95% PI for the OR lies between 0.74 to 1.92. Statistically, it does not differ from zero, which means that in some 95% of studies comparable to those in the analysis, the true effect size will fall in this interval.

Conclusion: Despite numerous attempts to identify genetic variants associated with success in elite sports, progress in this direction remains insignificant. Thus, no sports or sports roles were found for which the C > T variant of the ACTN3 gene would be a reliable prognostic marker for assessing an individual predisposition to achieve high sports performance. The results of the present meta-analysis support the conclusion that neutral gene polymorphism-from evolutionary or adaptive point of view-is not a trait that can be selected or used as a predictive tool in sports.