[小儿死亡指数(PIM)评分和乳酸值对危重儿童的预后价值]。

Anales Espanoles De Pediatria Pub Date : 2002-11-01
C García Sanz, M Rupérez Lucas, J López-Herce Cid, D Vigil Escribano, G Garrido Cantarero
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:分析比较儿科重症监护病房(PICU)入院时儿童死亡指数(PIM)评分与乳酸值对预后的预测价值。患者和方法:我们对500名连续入住PICU的儿童进行了前瞻性研究:237名女孩(47.4%)和263名男孩(52.6%),平均年龄为51.5 - 59.7岁(范围:3天-18岁)。入院时测定PIM评分和血乳酸浓度。分析PIM和乳酸浓度与病死率和PICU住院时间的预测能力。结果:死亡36例(7.2%)。根据PIM评分,死亡儿童的平均死亡概率为23.6% 28.9,显著高于存活儿童的平均死亡概率(3.4% 7.3;P < 0.001)。PIM的ROC曲线下面积为0.81 0.03 (95% CI: 0.74-0.89)。非幸存者的乳酸水平为4.9% - 3.5 mmol/L,显著高于幸存者(1.9% - 1.5 mmol/L;P < 0.001)。血乳酸曲线下面积为0.76 0.04 (95% CI: 0.67 ~ 0.85)。两组ROC曲线间无统计学差异。在幸存者中,PIM评分与PICU住院时间之间存在显著关系,而在非幸存者中,血乳酸浓度与住院时间之间存在反比关系。结论:PIM评分和入PICU时血乳酸浓度对危重患儿预后均有中等预测价值。PIM评分的预后价值大于血乳酸浓度,但更难获得,而血乳酸浓度的测定快速简便。
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[Prognostic value of the pediatric index of mortality (PIM) score and lactate values in critically-ill children].

Objective: To analyze and compare the prognostic value of the pediatric index of mortality (PIM) score and lactate values on admission to a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

Patients and methods: We performed a prospective study of 500 consecutive children: 237 girls (47.4 %) and 263 boys (52.6 %) with a mean age of 51.5 59.7 (range: 3 days-18 years) admitted to our PICU. PIM scores and blood lactate concentrations were determined on admission. The predictive ability of PIM and lactate concentrations in relation to mortality and length of stay in the PICU were analyzed.

Results: Thirty-six patients (7.2 %) died. According to the PIM score, the mean probability of death in children who died was 23.6 % 28.9, which was significantly higher than that in surviving children (3.4 % 7.3; p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve for PIM was 0.81 0.03 (95 % CI: 0.74-0.89). Lactate level in nonsurvivors was 4.9 % 3.5 mmol/L, which was significantly higher than that in survivors (1.9 % 1.5 mmol/L; p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve for blood lactate was 0.76 0.04 (95 % CI: 0.67-0.85). No statistically significant differences were found between either ROC curves. In survivors, a significant relationship was found between PIM score and length of stay in the PICU while in nonsurvivors an inverse relationship was found between blood lactate concentrations and length of stay.

Conclusions: Both PIM score and blood lactate concentrations on admission to the PICU have a moderate prognostic value in critically-ill children. The prognostic value of the PIM score is greater than that of blood lactate concentration but is more difficult to obtain, whereas blood lactate determination is fast and easy.

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