Andrew Tangborn, Weijia Kuang, Terence J Sabaka, Ce Yi
{"title":"利用NASA GEMS集合卡尔曼滤波预测地磁长期变化:IGRF-13的候选SV模型。","authors":"Andrew Tangborn, Weijia Kuang, Terence J Sabaka, Ce Yi","doi":"10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020-2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including <i>gufm1</i> (1590-1960), CM4 (1961-2000) and CM6 (2001-2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020-2025 time period. This forecast has been submitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020-2025.</p><p><strong>Graphical abstract: </strong></p>","PeriodicalId":11409,"journal":{"name":"Earth, Planets and Space","volume":"73 1","pages":"47"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13.\",\"authors\":\"Andrew Tangborn, Weijia Kuang, Terence J Sabaka, Ce Yi\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020-2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including <i>gufm1</i> (1590-1960), CM4 (1961-2000) and CM6 (2001-2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020-2025 time period. This forecast has been submitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020-2025.</p><p><strong>Graphical abstract: </strong></p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11409,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Earth, Planets and Space\",\"volume\":\"73 1\",\"pages\":\"47\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Earth, Planets and Space\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2021/2/11 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earth, Planets and Space","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01324-w","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/2/11 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13.
Abstract: We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020-2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including gufm1 (1590-1960), CM4 (1961-2000) and CM6 (2001-2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020-2025 time period. This forecast has been submitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020-2025.
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Earth, Planets and Space (EPS) covers scientific articles in Earth and Planetary Sciences, particularly geomagnetism, aeronomy, space science, seismology, volcanology, geodesy, and planetary science. EPS also welcomes articles in new and interdisciplinary subjects, including instrumentations. Only new and original contents will be accepted for publication.
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