Pan-Cancer Transcriptional Models Predicting Chemosensitivity in Human Tumors.

Motivation: Despite increasing understanding of the molecular characteristics of cancer, chemotherapy success rates remain low for many cancer types. Studies have attempted to identify patient and tumor characteristics that predict sensitivity or resistance to different types of conventional chemotherapies, yet a concise model that predicts chemosensitivity based on gene expression profiles across cancer types remains to be formulated. We attempted to generate pan-cancer models predictive of chemosensitivity and chemoresistance. Such models may increase the likelihood of identifying the type of chemotherapy most likely to be effective for a given patient based on the overall gene expression of their tumor.

Results: Gene expression and drug sensitivity data from solid tumor cell lines were used to build predictive models for 11 individual chemotherapy drugs. Models were validated using datasets from solid tumors from patients. For all drug models, accuracy ranged from 0.81 to 0.93 when applied to all relevant cancer types in the testing dataset. When considering how well the models predicted chemosensitivity or chemoresistance within individual cancer types in the testing dataset, accuracy was as high as 0.98. Cell line-derived pan-cancer models were able to statistically significantly predict sensitivity in human tumors in some instances; for example, a pan-cancer model predicting sensitivity in patients with bladder cancer treated with cisplatin was able to significantly segregate sensitive and resistant patients based on recurrence-free survival times (P = .048) and in patients with pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine (P = .038). These models can predict chemosensitivity and chemoresistance across cancer types with clinically useful levels of accuracy.