The cost-effectiveness of drug treatments for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a modelling study.

Background: Efficient prevention policies need to be informed by knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of preventive treatments. This paper calculates the cost-effectiveness of aspirin, antihypertensive treatments and statins for prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Design: The investigation is a modelling study.

Methods: Ten-year cardiovascular risks and treatment eligibility were determined for each individual in a population of 5603 obtained from the Health Survey of England. Using published costs and evidence of effectiveness the cost-effectiveness of treating each eligible individual was determined over a 10-year time horizon. The marginal cost-effectiveness of additional antihypertensive drugs and increasing doses of statins were determined and a sensitivity analysis was carried out.

Results: Of the 5603 individuals 27.5% (95% confidence interval, 26.3-28.7%) were eligible for at least one treatment: the majority of these were eligible for all three. Cost per cardiovascular disease event prevented is strongly determined by pretreatment cardiovascular disease risk. In three-quarters of patients eligible for all three treatments, the lowest cost per event prevented was with aspirin and in the remainder with two-drug antihypertensive treatment. The marginal costs per event prevented were highest with the addition of a fourth antihypertensive drug and statins. These findings depend on the use of low-cost antihypertensives but are otherwise robust to a wide range of assumptions.

Conclusions: Modelling the cost-effectiveness of treatments to prevent cardiovascular disease is feasible and provides valuable information. Cost-effectiveness analysis argues for more widespread use of aspirin and two-drug antihypertensive treatment and against the use of four-drug antihypertensive treatment or statins.