[不重要——现在怎么办?]

J Gerss
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在统计显著性检验中,科学问题是通过制定零假设和相反的替代来表达的。经验决策规则的构建通常侧重于控制α误差,即错误拒绝零假设的概率。与α误差相反,β误差不受控制,通常大小未知。因此,在非显著结果的情况下,原假设的有效性仍然可能是非常值得怀疑的。研究人员应该通过选择适当的研究设计来避免应用测试的这种不希望的结果。如果发生这种情况,建议进一步评估(不显著)结果。这可以通过计算测试效果的置信区间来完成。此外,p值可以被解释为反对零假设的证据的度量。通过后验功率分析,估计了在给定情况下显著性测试结果的概率。因此,可能应用的检验——在替代方案的实际有效性的假设下——结果证明几乎没有机会拒绝零假设。在这种情况下,不显著的结果(指向零假设)被相对化了。另一方面,一个大的功率指向一个小的概率的β -误差。
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[Not significant--what now?].

In a statistical significance test a scientific problem is expressed by formulating a null hypothesis and an opposite alternative. Construction of an empirical decision rule usually focuses on control of the alpha-error, i.e. the probability of erroneously refusing the null hypothesis. Contrary to the alpha-error, the beta-error is not controlled and in general is of unknown size. Thus in case of a non-significant result the validity of the null hypothesis still may be highly questionable. Such an unwanted outcome of an applied test the researcher should try to avoid by choosing an appropriate study design. In case it occurs nevertheless, it is advised to further evaluate the (non-significant) result. This can be done by calculating confidence intervals of the tested effects. Furthermore the p-value can be interpreted as a metric measure of evidence against the null hypothesis. By means of a posterior power analysis the probability of a significant test result is estimated under the given circumstances. Thus possibly the applied test--under the assumption of actual validity of the alternative--turns out to have had hardly a chance of rejecting the null hypothesis. In this case the non-significant result (pointing towards the null hypothesis) is relativized substantially. On the other hand a large power points to a small probability of a beta-error.

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