M L Kamugisha, S Gesase, D Minja, S Mgema, T D Mlwilo, B K Mayala, S Msingwa, J J Massaga, M M Lemnge
{"title":"坦桑尼亚东北部卢绍托鼠疫的格局和空间分布。","authors":"M L Kamugisha, S Gesase, D Minja, S Mgema, T D Mlwilo, B K Mayala, S Msingwa, J J Massaga, M M Lemnge","doi":"10.4314/thrb.v9i1.14286","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A review of plague records from 1986 to 2002 and household interviews were carried out in the plague endemic villages to establish a pattern and spatial distribution of the disease in Lushoto district, Tanzania. Spatial data of households and village centres were collected and mapped using a hand held Global Positioning System and Geographical Information System. During the 16-year period, there were 6249 cases of plague of which 5302 (84.8%) were bubonic, 391 (6.3%) septicaemic, and 438 (7.0%) pneumonic forms. A total of 118 (1.9%) cases were not categorized. Females and individuals aged 7-18 years old were the most affected groups accounting for 54.4% (95% CI: 52.4-56.0) and 47.0% (95% CI: 45-49) of all reported cases, respectively. Most cases were found in villages at high altitudes (1700-1900m); and there was a decline in case fatality rate (CFR) in areas that experienced frequent outbreaks. Overall, there was a reduction in mean reporting time (from symptoms onset to admission) to an average of 1.35 days (95% CI: 1.30-1.40) over the years, although this remained high among adult patients (>18 years). Despite the decrease in the number of cases and CFR over the years, our findings indicate that Lushoto district experiences human plague epidemic every year; with areas at high altitudes being more prone to outbreaks. The continued presence of plague in this focus warrants further studies. Nonetheless, our findings provide a platform for development of an epidemic preparedness plan to contain future outbreaks.</p>","PeriodicalId":87458,"journal":{"name":"Tanzania health research bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4314/thrb.v9i1.14286","citationCount":"25","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pattern and spatial distribution of plague in Lushoto, north-eastern Tanzania.\",\"authors\":\"M L Kamugisha, S Gesase, D Minja, S Mgema, T D Mlwilo, B K Mayala, S Msingwa, J J Massaga, M M Lemnge\",\"doi\":\"10.4314/thrb.v9i1.14286\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>A review of plague records from 1986 to 2002 and household interviews were carried out in the plague endemic villages to establish a pattern and spatial distribution of the disease in Lushoto district, Tanzania. Spatial data of households and village centres were collected and mapped using a hand held Global Positioning System and Geographical Information System. During the 16-year period, there were 6249 cases of plague of which 5302 (84.8%) were bubonic, 391 (6.3%) septicaemic, and 438 (7.0%) pneumonic forms. A total of 118 (1.9%) cases were not categorized. Females and individuals aged 7-18 years old were the most affected groups accounting for 54.4% (95% CI: 52.4-56.0) and 47.0% (95% CI: 45-49) of all reported cases, respectively. Most cases were found in villages at high altitudes (1700-1900m); and there was a decline in case fatality rate (CFR) in areas that experienced frequent outbreaks. Overall, there was a reduction in mean reporting time (from symptoms onset to admission) to an average of 1.35 days (95% CI: 1.30-1.40) over the years, although this remained high among adult patients (>18 years). Despite the decrease in the number of cases and CFR over the years, our findings indicate that Lushoto district experiences human plague epidemic every year; with areas at high altitudes being more prone to outbreaks. The continued presence of plague in this focus warrants further studies. Nonetheless, our findings provide a platform for development of an epidemic preparedness plan to contain future outbreaks.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":87458,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tanzania health research bulletin\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2007-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4314/thrb.v9i1.14286\",\"citationCount\":\"25\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tanzania health research bulletin\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4314/thrb.v9i1.14286\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tanzania health research bulletin","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4314/thrb.v9i1.14286","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Pattern and spatial distribution of plague in Lushoto, north-eastern Tanzania.
A review of plague records from 1986 to 2002 and household interviews were carried out in the plague endemic villages to establish a pattern and spatial distribution of the disease in Lushoto district, Tanzania. Spatial data of households and village centres were collected and mapped using a hand held Global Positioning System and Geographical Information System. During the 16-year period, there were 6249 cases of plague of which 5302 (84.8%) were bubonic, 391 (6.3%) septicaemic, and 438 (7.0%) pneumonic forms. A total of 118 (1.9%) cases were not categorized. Females and individuals aged 7-18 years old were the most affected groups accounting for 54.4% (95% CI: 52.4-56.0) and 47.0% (95% CI: 45-49) of all reported cases, respectively. Most cases were found in villages at high altitudes (1700-1900m); and there was a decline in case fatality rate (CFR) in areas that experienced frequent outbreaks. Overall, there was a reduction in mean reporting time (from symptoms onset to admission) to an average of 1.35 days (95% CI: 1.30-1.40) over the years, although this remained high among adult patients (>18 years). Despite the decrease in the number of cases and CFR over the years, our findings indicate that Lushoto district experiences human plague epidemic every year; with areas at high altitudes being more prone to outbreaks. The continued presence of plague in this focus warrants further studies. Nonetheless, our findings provide a platform for development of an epidemic preparedness plan to contain future outbreaks.