An approach to assess trends of pharmacist workforce production and density rate in Serbia.

The policy dialog on human resource in health care is one of the central issues of the ongoing health care system reform in the Republic of Serbia. Pharmacists are the third largest health care professional group, after nurses and doctors. This study's objective was to analyze population coverage with pharmacists employed in the public sector of health care system of Serbia during 1961 - 2007, and to project their density by 2017. In this respect, additionally, time-series of annual number of enrolled and graduate pharmacy students were modelled. Time trends of routinely collected national statistical data, concerning the pharmacists, were analyzed by join point regression program, according to grid-search method. During the observed period of time, in Serbia, pharmacist workforce production and deployment trends were generally positive, but with different annual dynamic. Key findings were the slow rise of pharmacist workforce density rates per 100,000 population; the insufficient balance between pharmacists workforce supply side (annual number of enrolled and graduated students) and the public health care sector's ability to absorb annual number of pharmacy graduates. For ten years ahead, density rates of publicly active pharmacist workforce would probably increase for 46%, if no policy interventions were planned to adverse trends of pharmacist workforce production and deployment in public health care sector. The study results may be useful for variety of stakeholders to better understand how and why the supply and deployment of pharmacists were changing; and that the coordination among policy interventions is a crucial successes factor for a health workforce development plan implementation. The repercussions of any changes made to the pharmacy workforce, need to be considered carefully in advance.