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引用次数: 0
摘要
人们对 p 值的概念越来越失望。p 值除了解释含糊不清外,还可以通过增加样本量 n 使其变得越小越好:一切都变得具有统计意义。p 值的问题根源在于均值比较。我们认为,统计不确定性应从个体而非群体层面来衡量。因此,应该使用标准差(SD),而不是标准误差(SE)、误差条来图解两组数据。我们根据两组个体/对象的区分度引入了一种新的测量方法,称之为 D 值。D 值可以看作是 n-of-1 的 p 值,因为它的计算方法与 p 值相同,只是让 n 等于 1。我们将展示 D 值与判别概率和接收者操作特征曲线(ROC)上方面积之间的关系。D 值可明确解释为治疗后病情恶化的患者比例,因此有助于权衡不同情况下发生事件的可能性。[2015年1月接收。2015年6月修订]。
There is growing frustration with the concept of the p-value. Besides having an ambiguous interpretation, the p-value can be made as small as desired by increasing the sample size, n. The p-value is outdated and does not make sense with big data: Everything becomes statistically significant. The root of the problem with the p-value is in the mean comparison. We argue that statistical uncertainty should be measured on the individual, not the group, level. Consequently, standard deviation (SD), not standard error (SE), error bars should be used to graphically present the data on two groups. We introduce a new measure based on the discrimination of individuals/objects from two groups, and call it the D-value. The D-value can be viewed as the n-of-1 p-value because it is computed in the same way as p while letting n equal 1. We show how the D-value is related to discrimination probability and the area above the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The D-value has a clear interpretation as the proportion of patients who get worse after the treatment, and as such facilitates to weigh up the likelihood of events under different scenarios. [Received January 2015. Revised June 2015.].
期刊介绍:
Are you looking for general-interest articles about current national and international statistical problems and programs; interesting and fun articles of a general nature about statistics and its applications; or the teaching of statistics? Then you are looking for The American Statistician (TAS), published quarterly by the American Statistical Association. TAS contains timely articles organized into the following sections: Statistical Practice, General, Teacher''s Corner, History Corner, Interdisciplinary, Statistical Computing and Graphics, Reviews of Books and Teaching Materials, and Letters to the Editor.