{"title":"COVID-19 时代的加权偏差和通货膨胀：来自瑞士交易数据的证据。","authors":"Pascal Seiler","doi":"10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was -0.4<i>%</i> by April 2020, compared to -1.1<i>%</i> of the equivalent CPI. Persistent \"low-touch\" consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.</p>","PeriodicalId":36872,"journal":{"name":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","volume":"156 1","pages":"13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493696/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data.\",\"authors\":\"Pascal Seiler\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was -0.4<i>%</i> by April 2020, compared to -1.1<i>%</i> of the equivalent CPI. Persistent \\\"low-touch\\\" consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":36872,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics\",\"volume\":\"156 1\",\"pages\":\"13\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493696/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2020/9/16 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Mathematics\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2020/9/16 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data.
Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was -0.4% by April 2020, compared to -1.1% of the equivalent CPI. Persistent "low-touch" consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.
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