Anisocytosis is Associated With Short-Term Mortality in COVID-19 and May Reflect Proinflammatory Signature in Uninfected Ambulatory Adults.

Background: Red cell distribution width (RDW), a measure of anisocytosis, is observed in chronic inflammation and is a prognostic marker in critically ill patients without COVID-19, but data in COVID-19 are limited.

Methods: Between March 12 and April 19, 2020, 282 individuals with confirmed COVID-19 and RDW available within 7 days prior to COVID-19 confirmation were evaluated. Individuals were grouped by quartiles of RDW. Association between quartiles of RDW and mortality was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and statistical significance was assessed using the log-rank test. The association between RDW and all-cause mortality was further assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Plasma cytokine levels in uninfected ambulatory adults without cardiovascular disease (n=38) were measured and bivariate Spearman correlations and principle components analysis were used to identify relationships between cytokine concentrations with RDW.

Results: After adjusting for age, sex, race, cardiovascular disease, and hemoglobin, there was an association between RDW and mortality (Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1: HR 4.04 [1.08-15.07]), with each 1% increment in RDW associated with a 39% increased rate of mortality (HR 1.39 [1.21-1.59]). Remote RDW was also associated with mortality after COVID-19 infection. Among uninfected ambulatory adults without cardiovascular disease, RDW was associated with elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL8, IL6, IL1b), but not regulatory cytokines (TGFb).

Conclusions: Anisocytosis predicts short-term mortality in COVID-19 patients, often predates viral exposure, and may be related to a pro-inflammatory phenotype. Additional study of whether the RDW can assist in the early identification of pending cytokine storm is warranted.