Covid-19 美国和欧洲根据法定任务采取的拉开社会距离干预措施及其与死亡率的观察相关性》(Covid-19 Social Distancing Interventions by Statutory Mandate and Their Observational Correlation to Mortality in the United States and Europe)。
{"title":"Covid-19 美国和欧洲根据法定任务采取的拉开社会距离干预措施及其与死亡率的观察相关性》(Covid-19 Social Distancing Interventions by Statutory Mandate and Their Observational Correlation to Mortality in the United States and Europe)。","authors":"Sean Mccafferty, Sean Ashley","doi":"10.2147/POR.S298309","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Evaluate the correlation between statutory social distancing interventions and Covid-19 mortality independently in both the United States and Europe. The study is presented as a potential methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of statutory social distancing policy.</p><p><strong>Patients and methods: </strong>Twenty-seven states in the United States and, separately, 12 European countries were selected which had clearly defined and dated establishment of statewide or national mandates for social distancing measures from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) data. Mandated social distancing measures considered in this study include: School closures, Prohibition on mass gatherings, business closures, stay at home orders, severe travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential businesses. The state/country Covid-19 peak mortality rate (PMR) was defined as the initial averaged normalized maximum during which social distancing mandates were in effect. Mandate-days were defined as the total days legislative mandates were in place to the PMR.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The normalized peak mortality rate in the US and in Europe did not demonstrate a statistically significant correlation to the total mandate days (R-squared=0.053, p=0.246, R-squared=2.4E-06, p=0.996). A significant correlation was found between normalized mortality rate and state/country population density (R-squared=0.524, p=0.00002,R-squared=0.397, p=0.0281).</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>The analysis appears to suggest no mandate effective reduction in Covid-19 mortality rate to its defined initial peak when interpreting their mean-effect. A strong correlation to population density suggests human interaction frequency does affect the peak mortality rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":20399,"journal":{"name":"Pragmatic and Observational Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2021-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/14/3a/por-12-15.PMC8088306.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Covid-19 Social Distancing Interventions by Statutory Mandate and Their Observational Correlation to Mortality in the United States and Europe.\",\"authors\":\"Sean Mccafferty, Sean Ashley\",\"doi\":\"10.2147/POR.S298309\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Evaluate the correlation between statutory social distancing interventions and Covid-19 mortality independently in both the United States and Europe. The study is presented as a potential methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of statutory social distancing policy.</p><p><strong>Patients and methods: </strong>Twenty-seven states in the United States and, separately, 12 European countries were selected which had clearly defined and dated establishment of statewide or national mandates for social distancing measures from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) data. Mandated social distancing measures considered in this study include: School closures, Prohibition on mass gatherings, business closures, stay at home orders, severe travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential businesses. The state/country Covid-19 peak mortality rate (PMR) was defined as the initial averaged normalized maximum during which social distancing mandates were in effect. Mandate-days were defined as the total days legislative mandates were in place to the PMR.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The normalized peak mortality rate in the US and in Europe did not demonstrate a statistically significant correlation to the total mandate days (R-squared=0.053, p=0.246, R-squared=2.4E-06, p=0.996). A significant correlation was found between normalized mortality rate and state/country population density (R-squared=0.524, p=0.00002,R-squared=0.397, p=0.0281).</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>The analysis appears to suggest no mandate effective reduction in Covid-19 mortality rate to its defined initial peak when interpreting their mean-effect. 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Covid-19 Social Distancing Interventions by Statutory Mandate and Their Observational Correlation to Mortality in the United States and Europe.
Purpose: Evaluate the correlation between statutory social distancing interventions and Covid-19 mortality independently in both the United States and Europe. The study is presented as a potential methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of statutory social distancing policy.
Patients and methods: Twenty-seven states in the United States and, separately, 12 European countries were selected which had clearly defined and dated establishment of statewide or national mandates for social distancing measures from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) data. Mandated social distancing measures considered in this study include: School closures, Prohibition on mass gatherings, business closures, stay at home orders, severe travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential businesses. The state/country Covid-19 peak mortality rate (PMR) was defined as the initial averaged normalized maximum during which social distancing mandates were in effect. Mandate-days were defined as the total days legislative mandates were in place to the PMR.
Results: The normalized peak mortality rate in the US and in Europe did not demonstrate a statistically significant correlation to the total mandate days (R-squared=0.053, p=0.246, R-squared=2.4E-06, p=0.996). A significant correlation was found between normalized mortality rate and state/country population density (R-squared=0.524, p=0.00002,R-squared=0.397, p=0.0281).
Discussion: The analysis appears to suggest no mandate effective reduction in Covid-19 mortality rate to its defined initial peak when interpreting their mean-effect. A strong correlation to population density suggests human interaction frequency does affect the peak mortality rate.
期刊介绍:
Pragmatic and Observational Research is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access journal that publishes data from studies designed to closely reflect medical interventions in real-world clinical practice, providing insights beyond classical randomized controlled trials (RCTs). While RCTs maximize internal validity for cause-and-effect relationships, they often represent only specific patient groups. This journal aims to complement such studies by providing data that better mirrors real-world patients and the usage of medicines, thus informing guidelines and enhancing the applicability of research findings across diverse patient populations encountered in everyday clinical practice.