Determinants of Intraocular Pressure and Time to Blindness for Glaucoma Patients at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Bar, Ethiopia: A Comparison of Separate and Joint Models.

Background: Due to the substantial increase in the number of glaucoma cases within the next several decades, glaucoma is a significant public health issue. The main objective of this study was to investigate the determinant factors of intraocular pressure and time to blindness of glaucoma patients under treatment at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

Methods: A retrospective study design was conducted on 328 randomly selected glaucoma patients using simple random sampling based on the identification number of patients in an ophthalmology clinic at the hospital under the follow-up period from January 2014 to December 2018. A linear mixed effects model for intraocular pressure data, a semi-parametric survival model for the time-to-blindness data and joint modeling of the 2 responses were used for data analysis. However, the primary outcome was survival time of glaucoma patients.

Results: The comparison of joint and separate models revealed that joint model was more adequate and efficient inferences because of its smaller standard errors in parameter estimations. This was also approved using AIC, BIC, and based on a significant likelihood ratio test as well. The estimated association parameter (α) in the joint model was .0160 and statistically significant (P-value = .0349). This indicated that there was strong evidence for positive association between the effects of intraocular pressure and the risk of blindness. The result indicated that the higher value of intraocular pressure was associated with the higher risk of blindness. Age, hypertension, type of medication, cup-disk ratio significantly affects both average intraocular pressure and survival time of glaucoma patients (P-value < .05).

Conclusion: The predictors; age, hypertension, type of medication, and cup-disk ratio were significantly associated with the 2 responses of glaucoma patients. Health professionals give more attention to patients who have blood pressure and cup-disk ratio greater than 0.7 during the follow-up time to reduce the risk of blindness of glaucoma patients.