前苏联国家实际汇率失调与货币危机。

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Comparative Economic Studies Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-11-25 DOI:10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9

Viktar Dudzich

{"title":"前苏联国家实际汇率失调与货币危机。","authors":"Viktar Dudzich","doi":"10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.","PeriodicalId":46161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Economic Studies","volume":"64 3","pages":"384-416"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613727/pdf/","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries.\",\"authors\":\"Viktar Dudzich\",\"doi\":\"10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46161,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Comparative Economic Studies\",\"volume\":\"64 3\",\"pages\":\"384-416\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613727/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Comparative Economic Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2021/11/25 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Comparative Economic Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/11/25 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

摘要

本文从均衡角度探讨了实际汇率失调对前苏联国家货币危机识别的效用。我们使用行为均衡汇率(BEER)和自然实际汇率(NATREX)概念和集合平均群估计器估计了10个前苏联共和国的均衡汇率。随后，我们比较了货币危机发生前、期间和之后的估计偏差，并对危机相关变量的偏差进行了回归。结果表明，在危机发生前，失调倾向于增加，危机发生后明显减少，因此可以作为此类事件的潜在可行预测指标。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

摘要图片

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries.

The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Comparative Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Comparative Economic Studies is a journal of the Association for Comparative Economic Studies (ACES). It aims to publish papers that address several objectives: that provide original political economy analysis from a comparative perspective, that are an accessible source for state-of-the-art comparative economics thinking, that encourage cross-fertilization of ideas, that debate directions for future research in comparative economics, and that can provide materials and insights that are relevant for teaching, public policy debate and the media. Comparative Economic Studies welcome both submissions that are explicitly comparative and case studies of single countries or regions. The journal is interested in papers that investigate how economic systems respond to economic transitions, crises and to structural change, brought about by globalization, demographics, institutions, technology, politics, and the environment. While maintaining its position as an important outlet for work on Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union, the scope of Comparative Economic Studies encompasses other areas as well (European Union, Asia, Latin America, and Africa).