部分非洲国家胃癌发病率趋势变化的主要模式

IF 1.1 Q4 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics Pub Date : 2021-12-23 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1155/2021/5065707
Fahimeh Shokouhi, Aida Amiripour, Hadi Raeisi Shahraki
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引用次数: 2

摘要

目的:本研究旨在调查非洲国家胃癌发病率的趋势变化,并确定主要模式。方法:从世界卫生组织档案中获取1990年至2016年非洲53个国家男女胃癌发病率(每10万人)的年度报告。生长混合物模型用于Mplus 7.4中模型的拟合。每种模式的估计线性趋势具有截距(1990年的比率)和斜率(观察到的两年趋势变化)的特征,最后,每个国家被归为模式最相似的一类。结果:确定了男性的3种主要模式,女性的2种主要模式。对于男性来说,第一组包括佛得角、中非共和国和毛里求斯,出现了急剧下降,而第二组包括阿尔及利亚、Côte科特迪瓦、埃及、冈比亚、利比亚、马拉维、摩洛哥、纳米比亚、尼日利亚和突尼斯的国家则出现了轻微下降,其他43个国家则出现了温和下降的第三组。在女性方面,包括安哥拉、博茨瓦纳、布隆迪、佛得角、中非共和国、刚果共和国、赤道几内亚、埃塞俄比亚、加蓬、肯尼亚、马里、毛里求斯、卢旺达、圣多美和普林西比、苏丹、斯威士兰、乌干达、赞比亚和津巴布韦在内的19个国家的女性被归类为中高下降模式,但其他34个国家的女性则呈温和下降模式。结论:虽然大多数观察到的胃癌发病率呈下降趋势,但只有少数国家出现了良好的下降趋势(男性发病率为3个国家,女性发病率为19个国家)。因此,采取有效行动加速观测到的下降趋势似乎是必要的。
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The Main Patterns in the Trend Change of Stomach Cancer Incidence amongst Selected African Countries.

Aim: The current study aimed to investigate the trend changes of stomach cancer incidence amongst African countries and identify the main patterns.

Methods: The annual reports of stomach cancer incidence rate (per 100,000 people) for males and females in 53 African countries from 1990 to 2016 were maintained from the World Health Organization archive. The growth mixture model was used for fitting the models in Mplus 7.4. The estimated linear trend in each pattern was characterized by intercept (the rate at 1990) and slope (the observed biennial trend changes), and finally, each country was grouped into a cluster with the most similar pattern.

Results: Three main patterns for males and two main patterns for females were determined. For males, the first cluster, containing Cape Verde, Central African Republic, and Mauritius, showed a sharp fall, while countries in the second pattern including Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Gambia, Libya, Malawi, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, and Tunisia were categorized in a pattern with a slight decrease, and other 43 countries were in the third pattern with a moderate falling trend. For females, 19 countries including Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Congo Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe were categorized in the moderate-to-high falling pattern, but the other 34 countries had a gentle downward pattern.

Conclusion: Although most of the observed trends of stomach cancer were falling, only a few countries had experienced a favorable decreasing trend (three countries in male incidence and nineteen countries in female incidence). Therefore, taking effective actions to accelerate the observed falling trends seems necessary.

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来源期刊
Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics
Global Health Epidemiology and Genomics PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
20 weeks
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