从不同污水集水区的 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度预测 COVID-19 的日发病率。

FEMS microbes Pub Date : 2022-01-10 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1093/femsmc/xtab022
Alessandro Zulli, Annabelle Pan, Stephen M Bart, Forrest W Crawford, Edward H Kaplan, Matthew Cartter, Albert I Ko, Marcela Sanchez, Cade Brown, Duncan Cozens, Doug E Brackney, Jordan Peccia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们评估了城市 COVID-19 病例率与相应污水处理设施初级污泥中 SARS-CoV-2 浓度之间的关系。我们从为美国康涅狄格州 18 个城镇提供服务的六个污水处理设施收集了 1700 多份每日初级污泥样本。对样本进行了 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度分析,分析时间跨度为 10 个月,与 2020 年 10 月和 2021 年冬春 COVID-19 在各市的爆发时间重叠。我们根据每天从相应的污水处理设施中收集的 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度拟合了滞后回归模型,以估计六个城市的报告病例率。结果表明,初级污泥中的 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度能够估算出各处理设施和污水集水区的 COVID-19 报告病例率,覆盖概率在 0.94 到 0.96 之间。滞后期为 0 到 1 天的模型预测能力最强。留空交叉验证表明,该模型可广泛应用于服务人口超过一个数量级的污水集水区。病例发生率与 SARS-CoV-2 浓度之间的密切关系表明,使用原生污泥样本监测 COVID-19 的爆发动态是非常有用的。从废水数据中估计病例发生率对于检测能力有限、检测不均衡或个别 COVID-19 检测项目延迟的地区非常有用。
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Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments.

We assessed the relationship between municipality COVID-19 case rates and SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the primary sludge of corresponding wastewater treatment facilities. Over 1700 daily primary sludge samples were collected from six wastewater treatment facilities with catchments serving 18 cities and towns in the State of Connecticut, USA. Samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations during a 10 month time period that overlapped with October 2020 and winter/spring 2021 COVID-19 outbreaks in each municipality. We fit lagged regression models to estimate reported case rates in the six municipalities from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations collected daily from corresponding wastewater treatment facilities. Results demonstrate the ability of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary sludge to estimate COVID-19 reported case rates across treatment facilities and wastewater catchments, with coverage probabilities ranging from 0.94 to 0.96. Lags of 0 to 1 days resulted in the greatest predictive power for the model. Leave-one-out cross validation suggests that the model can be broadly applied to wastewater catchments that range in more than one order of magnitude in population served. The close relationship between case rates and SARS-CoV-2 concentrations demonstrates the utility of using primary sludge samples for monitoring COVID-19 outbreak dynamics. Estimating case rates from wastewater data can be useful in locations with limited testing availability, testing disparities, or delays in individual COVID-19 testing programs.

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CiteScore
3.30
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审稿时长
15 weeks
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