Calcineurin inhibitors and related medicines: a cohort study examining England's primary care prescription changes during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2019 to March 2021).

Purpose: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on calcineurin inhibitors and related prescriptions for community patients in England.

Methods: Data from all primary-care patients who had calcineurin inhibitors prescriptions, dispensed in the community in England were included. Descriptive statistics and interrupted time series analysis over 27 months (15 months before and 12 months after 1^st lockdown) was evaluated.

Results: Descriptive statistics show that mean values have declined since the pandemic's onset. Over the 27 months: mean Tacrolimus 865,045 doses, standard deviation (SD) 76,147 doses, with 95% CI 834,923, 895,168, (min 567,508, max 1,010,900), ciclosporin 315,496 doses, SD 40,094, 95% CI 299,635, 331,356 (min 191,281, max 382,253) and sirolimus 21,384 doses, SD 2,610, 95% CI 20,352, 22,417 (min 13,022, max 26,156). Analysis of variance between the pre- and post- periods show significant variations in quantities of tacrolimus F 7.432, p = 0.012, ciclosporin F 33.147, p < 0.001 and sirolimus F 18.596, p < 0.001 (1df), mirrored in price analysis. The Interrupted Time Series (ARIMA Modelling) shows declining trends. After the pandemic's onset, a statistically significant downward trend in quantity for tacrolimus p = 0.008 is observed, with an estimated monthly decline of 14,524 doses, ciclosporin p = 0.185, with an estimated decline of 2,161 doses and sirolimus p = 0.002 with an estimated decline of 485 doses, along with declining prices.

Conclusion: A decrease in prescription medicines use raises concerns for the care of (renal) transplant patients. Patients are encouraged to discuss their planned care with their doctor, secure supplies and remain adherent to their medication.