Qun Zuo, Zhangquan Gao, Li Cai, Linlin Bai, Yu Pei, Mengchao Liu, Hongmei Xue, Juan Xu, Shusong Wang
{"title":"TORCH与生殖道合并感染对育龄妇女自然流产的预测模型","authors":"Qun Zuo, Zhangquan Gao, Li Cai, Linlin Bai, Yu Pei, Mengchao Liu, Hongmei Xue, Juan Xu, Shusong Wang","doi":"10.1111/cga.12466","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>To develop a predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ spontaneous abortion (SA) by co-infections of TORCH and reproductive tract, in order to provide a reference tool for accurately predicting the risk of SA and guide the early prevention, diagnosis and treatment of SA. A prospective cohort study was designed based on 218 958 child-bearing-aged women following up in Hebei province in China from 2010 to 2017. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to select candidate predictive variables. Fisher's discriminant analysis was performed to build a predictive model, and the validity of the model was evaluated. The incidence rate of SA was 2.4%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.507), adverse pregnancy history (OR = 1.509), co-infections status of <i>Candida</i> and HBsAg (OR<sub><i>Candida</i> positive×HBsAg negative</sub> = 4.091, OR<sub><i>Candida</i> negative×HBsAg positive</sub> = 3.327, and OR<sub><i>Candida</i> positive×HBsAg positive</sub> = 13.762), and co-infections status of HBsAg, Rubella (IgG) and CMV (IgG) (OR<sub>HBs-Ag negative×Rubella (IgG) negative×CMV (IgG) positive</sub> = 1.789, OR<sub>HBs-Ag positive×Rubella (IgG) positive×CMV (IgG) negative</sub> = 3.809, and OR<sub>HBsAg positive×Rubella (IgG) positive×CMV (IgG) positive</sub> = 11.919) were the independent predictors of SA. The total discriminant rate reached 91%, with 82% of the sensitivity and 91% of the specificity. The predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ SA by co-infections status has a good performance. The co-infection status of TORCH and reproductive tract are suggested to be considered in pre-pregnancy physical examination.</p>","PeriodicalId":10626,"journal":{"name":"Congenital Anomalies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ spontaneous abortion by co-infections of TORCH and reproductive tract\",\"authors\":\"Qun Zuo, Zhangquan Gao, Li Cai, Linlin Bai, Yu Pei, Mengchao Liu, Hongmei Xue, Juan Xu, Shusong Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/cga.12466\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>To develop a predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ spontaneous abortion (SA) by co-infections of TORCH and reproductive tract, in order to provide a reference tool for accurately predicting the risk of SA and guide the early prevention, diagnosis and treatment of SA. A prospective cohort study was designed based on 218 958 child-bearing-aged women following up in Hebei province in China from 2010 to 2017. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to select candidate predictive variables. Fisher's discriminant analysis was performed to build a predictive model, and the validity of the model was evaluated. The incidence rate of SA was 2.4%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.507), adverse pregnancy history (OR = 1.509), co-infections status of <i>Candida</i> and HBsAg (OR<sub><i>Candida</i> positive×HBsAg negative</sub> = 4.091, OR<sub><i>Candida</i> negative×HBsAg positive</sub> = 3.327, and OR<sub><i>Candida</i> positive×HBsAg positive</sub> = 13.762), and co-infections status of HBsAg, Rubella (IgG) and CMV (IgG) (OR<sub>HBs-Ag negative×Rubella (IgG) negative×CMV (IgG) positive</sub> = 1.789, OR<sub>HBs-Ag positive×Rubella (IgG) positive×CMV (IgG) negative</sub> = 3.809, and OR<sub>HBsAg positive×Rubella (IgG) positive×CMV (IgG) positive</sub> = 11.919) were the independent predictors of SA. The total discriminant rate reached 91%, with 82% of the sensitivity and 91% of the specificity. The predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ SA by co-infections status has a good performance. The co-infection status of TORCH and reproductive tract are suggested to be considered in pre-pregnancy physical examination.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10626,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Congenital Anomalies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-03-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Congenital Anomalies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cga.12466\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PEDIATRICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Congenital Anomalies","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cga.12466","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PEDIATRICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ spontaneous abortion by co-infections of TORCH and reproductive tract
To develop a predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ spontaneous abortion (SA) by co-infections of TORCH and reproductive tract, in order to provide a reference tool for accurately predicting the risk of SA and guide the early prevention, diagnosis and treatment of SA. A prospective cohort study was designed based on 218 958 child-bearing-aged women following up in Hebei province in China from 2010 to 2017. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to select candidate predictive variables. Fisher's discriminant analysis was performed to build a predictive model, and the validity of the model was evaluated. The incidence rate of SA was 2.4%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.507), adverse pregnancy history (OR = 1.509), co-infections status of Candida and HBsAg (ORCandida positive×HBsAg negative = 4.091, ORCandida negative×HBsAg positive = 3.327, and ORCandida positive×HBsAg positive = 13.762), and co-infections status of HBsAg, Rubella (IgG) and CMV (IgG) (ORHBs-Ag negative×Rubella (IgG) negative×CMV (IgG) positive = 1.789, ORHBs-Ag positive×Rubella (IgG) positive×CMV (IgG) negative = 3.809, and ORHBsAg positive×Rubella (IgG) positive×CMV (IgG) positive = 11.919) were the independent predictors of SA. The total discriminant rate reached 91%, with 82% of the sensitivity and 91% of the specificity. The predicting model of child-bearing-aged women’ SA by co-infections status has a good performance. The co-infection status of TORCH and reproductive tract are suggested to be considered in pre-pregnancy physical examination.
期刊介绍:
Congenital Anomalies is the official English language journal of the Japanese Teratology Society, and publishes original articles in laboratory as well as clinical research in all areas of abnormal development and related fields, from all over the world. Although contributions by members of the teratology societies affiliated with The International Federation of Teratology Societies are given priority, contributions from non-members are welcomed.