{"title":"旅游大都市的流动性、非稳态密度和抢劫分布。","authors":"Riccardo Valente, Juanjo Medina-Ariza","doi":"10.1007/s10610-022-09528-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study looks at the spatial distribution of robbery against residents as a function of nonstationary density and mobility patterns in the most densely populated city in Spain, Barcelona. Based on the geographical coordinates of mobile devices, we computed two measures of density of the ambient population and the tourist presence, for work days, weekends, and holidays in 2019. Negative binomial regressions are then estimated to analyse whether these measures are correlated with the risk of robbery, controlling for land use and the characteristics of the social environment. The model reveals that residents' chances of being exposed to robbery in Barcelona depend on the social relevance and tourism attractiveness of certain places at particular times of the year. Our results disclose two sources of social disorganization as stronger predictors of the occurrence of robbery in Barcelona, respectively linked to structural processes of residential instability and daily and seasonal mobility patterns. On the one hand, we found that the effect of the density of international tourists on the outcome variable is mediated by residential volatility, which is assumed to be associated with housing shortages in neighbourhoods where short-term vacation rentals are widespread. On the other hand, the ability to exert effective social control is significantly undermined in urban areas, where the ambient population and the volume of tourists outnumber the resident population, thus increasing incidents of robbery victimization. The implications of these findings for urban policy and crime prevention in the Catalan capital are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":46991,"journal":{"name":"European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9435424/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mobility, Nonstationary Density, and Robbery Distribution in the Tourist Metropolis.\",\"authors\":\"Riccardo Valente, Juanjo Medina-Ariza\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10610-022-09528-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This study looks at the spatial distribution of robbery against residents as a function of nonstationary density and mobility patterns in the most densely populated city in Spain, Barcelona. Based on the geographical coordinates of mobile devices, we computed two measures of density of the ambient population and the tourist presence, for work days, weekends, and holidays in 2019. Negative binomial regressions are then estimated to analyse whether these measures are correlated with the risk of robbery, controlling for land use and the characteristics of the social environment. The model reveals that residents' chances of being exposed to robbery in Barcelona depend on the social relevance and tourism attractiveness of certain places at particular times of the year. Our results disclose two sources of social disorganization as stronger predictors of the occurrence of robbery in Barcelona, respectively linked to structural processes of residential instability and daily and seasonal mobility patterns. On the one hand, we found that the effect of the density of international tourists on the outcome variable is mediated by residential volatility, which is assumed to be associated with housing shortages in neighbourhoods where short-term vacation rentals are widespread. On the other hand, the ability to exert effective social control is significantly undermined in urban areas, where the ambient population and the volume of tourists outnumber the resident population, thus increasing incidents of robbery victimization. The implications of these findings for urban policy and crime prevention in the Catalan capital are discussed.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46991,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9435424/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-022-09528-4\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-022-09528-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Mobility, Nonstationary Density, and Robbery Distribution in the Tourist Metropolis.
This study looks at the spatial distribution of robbery against residents as a function of nonstationary density and mobility patterns in the most densely populated city in Spain, Barcelona. Based on the geographical coordinates of mobile devices, we computed two measures of density of the ambient population and the tourist presence, for work days, weekends, and holidays in 2019. Negative binomial regressions are then estimated to analyse whether these measures are correlated with the risk of robbery, controlling for land use and the characteristics of the social environment. The model reveals that residents' chances of being exposed to robbery in Barcelona depend on the social relevance and tourism attractiveness of certain places at particular times of the year. Our results disclose two sources of social disorganization as stronger predictors of the occurrence of robbery in Barcelona, respectively linked to structural processes of residential instability and daily and seasonal mobility patterns. On the one hand, we found that the effect of the density of international tourists on the outcome variable is mediated by residential volatility, which is assumed to be associated with housing shortages in neighbourhoods where short-term vacation rentals are widespread. On the other hand, the ability to exert effective social control is significantly undermined in urban areas, where the ambient population and the volume of tourists outnumber the resident population, thus increasing incidents of robbery victimization. The implications of these findings for urban policy and crime prevention in the Catalan capital are discussed.
期刊介绍:
The European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research is a peer-reviewed criminology journal, with an international and interdisciplinary focus. It welcomes submissions from Europe and well beyond, from different disciplines and traditions, where crime issues are connected to their socio-, psychological and economic contexts. The focus of its peer-reviewed coverage is on understanding crime trends in different geographical and socio-economic contexts, on presenting innovative crime prevention policies and practices, presenting innovative methodologies, and on following legislative and institutional change. The journal aims to strengthen the link between research and policies in the area of crime and justice, and welcomes submissions with a policy-related component.Discussion includes the trade-off between security and rights and ways to optimize the effectiveness of criminal justice systems with respect to human and civil rights. Recognizing that criminal justice systems are not the only method for dealing with crime, the journal also devotes attention to alternative policies and practices.Its four annual issues include one thematic issue and three that are open to various contributions.