Biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy - a large, comprehensive, population-based study with long follow-up.

Objective: We evaluated long-term risk for biochemical recurrence and subsequent prognosis in a population-based cohort.

Material and methods: We used register-based data to evaluate 6 675 consecutive patients having radical prostatectomy in Västra Götaland county in Sweden during 1995-2014. Patients were followed until death or end of study, 31 December 2014. Data were collected from registers on national, regional and local level and linked by means of the Swedish personal identity number. Biochemical recurrence was defined as PSA ≥0.2 ng/ml; failure as hormonal treatment, metastasis or prostate cancer death. Survival analysis was used to estimate time to biochemical recurrence and time to failure after biochemical recurrence for patients with 0 - 2 years, 2-5 years, 5-10 years and >10 years interval to biochemical recurrence, respectively.

Results: A total of 1214 men had biochemical recurrence during follow-up. Biochemical recurrence-free survival was 83% (95% confidence interval [CI] 82-84%), 75% (95% CI 74-77%) and 69% (95% CI 67-71%) at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Cumulative incidence of failure for all patients 15 years after biochemical recurrence was 50% (95% CI 43-55%) in competing risk analysis. The risk of failure after biochemical recurrence was highest among patients having biochemical recurrence within 2 years from surgery. Incomplete data on PSA-history is a limitation.

Conclusions: The risk for biochemical recurrence persists 15 years after surgery. Follow-up should continue as long as treatment would be considered in case of recurrent disease.