Lifetime probability of developing cancer and dying from cancer in Canada, 1997 to 2020.

Background: The lifetime probabilities of developing (LP_dev) cancer and dying (LP_dying) from cancer are useful summary statistics that describe the impact of cancer within a population. This study aims to present detailed LP_dev and LP_dying for cancer by sex and cancer type and to describe changes in these lifetime probabilities over time among the Canadian population.

Data and methods: Cancer incidence data (1997 to 2018) were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry. All-cause and cancer mortality data (1997 to 2020) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. LP_dev and LP_dying were calculated using the DevCan software, and trends over time were estimated using Joinpoint.

Results: The LP_dev for all cancers combined was 44.3% in Canada in 2018, with all results excluding Quebec. At the age of 60, the conditional probability of developing cancer was very similar (44.0% for males and 38.2% for females). The LP_dying was 22.5% among the Canadian population in 2020, while the probability of dying from cancer conditional on surviving until age 60 was 25.1% for males and 20.5% for females. Generally, males experienced higher LP_dev and LP_dying for most specific cancers compared with females.

Interpretation: LP_dev and LP_dying for cancer mirror cancer incidence and mortality rates. Cancer-specific changes in these probabilities over time are indicative of the cancer trends resulting from cancer prevention, screening, detection, and treatment. These changes in LP_dev and LP_dying provide insight into the shifting landscape of the Canadian cancer burden.