Implications of sustainability initiatives on African Continental Free Trade adoption by firms under environmental uncertainty

Purpose Despite the enormous expectant opportunities from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), including creating a single continental market for goods and services, trade and investment, one key deterrent has remained fiercely unresolved due to failed trajectories with similar regional markets initiatives in the continent, and that is environmental uncertainty. To address this concern, this paper aims to develop a sustainability enabled-model to facilitate the adoption of AfCFTA under uncertain environment conditions to guide prospective investors and facilitators. Design/methodology/approach This study is anchored on quantitative research approach and positivists’ paradigm. Survey strategy has been used to collect data from 520 medium-sized firms across Ghana. Data analyses have been conducted with the using smart partial least squares version 3.3.3 analytical tool and structural equation modeling modality. Findings The findings have showed that institutionalization, supply chain integration, supply chain resilience and innovativeness have positive effects on AfCFTA adoption under uncertainty. Moreover, AfCFTA adoption provides mechanisms through which to attain sustainable supply chain performance. Meanwhile, environmental uncertainty negatively influences AfCFTA adoption, and weakens the relationships between the adoption and sustainability performance. Originality/value This paper has developed an integrated investment decision model to facilitate AfCFTA adoption under environmental uncertainty. It provides new insights into the African free market to guide policymakers, practitioners, academics and promoters of AfCFTA on sustainability initiatives that influence its adoption under uncertainty. Moreover, the new model, which serves as a strategic tool for decision-making, could be used to stimulate the ratification and the trade facilitation measures to build strong confidence in current and prospective investors.