Effects of statewide stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the central USA

PurposeThis study seeks to determine the effects of stay-at-home orders in Spring 2020 on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Central USA by comparing counties and health service areas that were and that were not subject to statewide orders.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimates the effects of statewide stay-at-home orders on new COVID-19 cases and deaths within 19 central states, of which 14 had stay-at-home orders. It uses synthetic control analysis and nearest neighbor matching to estimate the effects at two geographic levels: counties and health service areas.FindingsStatewide stay-at-home orders significantly reduced the number of new COVID-19 cases in the Central USA starting about three weeks after their effective dates; during the fourth week after their effective dates, the orders reduced the number of new cases per capita by 31%–57%. Statewide stay-at-home orders did not reduce the number of new COVID-19 deaths in the Central USA.Social implicationsThe main purpose of stay-at-home orders in Spring 2020 was to “flatten the curve” so that hospitalizations would not exceed capacity. It is likely that stay-at-home orders in the Central USA reduced hospitalizations to some extent, although the effect on hospitalizations was likely smaller than the effect on cases.Originality/valueThis is the first study of stay-at-home orders in the USA to limit the population to a group of interior states. All coastal states had statewide stay-at-home orders and comparing coastal states with orders to interior states without them may be problematic.