讨论

IF 7.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.1086/700915
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引用次数: 0

摘要

作者以Gregory Mankiw在他的讨论中提出的两点作为讨论的开始。首先,他们认为他们的模型考虑到了相当大的长期影响。他们解释说,在他们的模型中,边境税的调整会导致美元升值。由于美国是本国货币的净债务国,这种升值导致了负估值效应,相当于美国国内生产总值(gdp)的约16%从美国转移到世界其他地区。这种估值效应可能超过边界调整的短期好处。其次,作者对曼昆提出的观点提出了挑战,即在贸易政策方面,短期和长期影响之间存在明显的二分法。作者坚持认为,政治经济考虑在短期内的重要性,这可能会阻碍采用理想的税收改革和实现长期利益。作者接下来回答了两位讨论者关于美元定价的作用和卡尔沃定价在重大税收政策变化背景下的重要性的问题。他们指出,在他们的模型中,美元定价在勒纳对称失效中起着关键作用。对进口商品征收边境税对美国消费者价格有两个影响。直接影响提高了这些价格,而间接影响通过导致美元升值来降低价格。在美元定价的情况下,税收的直接传递是充分的,而汇率对美国消费者价格的短期传递则很低。这种不对称导致了勒纳对称的失效。作者指出,美元定价与最近的证据是一致的:美元先是升值,然后贬值10%-12%,而边境价格基本保持不变。它们为美元定价作为一种均衡现象提供了理论依据。由于美国的投入,国际公司决定以美元定价
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Discussion
The authors opened the discussion by addressing two points raised by Gregory Mankiw in his discussion. First, they argued that their model allows for sizeable long-run effects. They explained that an adjustment of border taxes leads to an appreciation of the US dollar in their model. Because the United States is a net debtor in its own currency, this appreciation leads to a negative valuation effect, corresponding to a transfer from the United States to the rest of the world of roughly 16% of US gross domestic product. This valuation effect possibly outweighs the short-term benefits of border adjustment. Second, the authors challenged the idea put forth by Mankiw that there is a clear dichotomy between short-run and long-run effects when it comes to trade policy. The authors insisted on the importance of political economy considerations in the short run, which may prevent the adoption of desired tax changes and the realization of long-run benefits. The authors next replied to questions from both discussants regarding the role of dollar pricing and the importance of Calvo pricing in the context of a large tax policy change. They pointed out that dollar pricing plays a key role in the failure of the Lerner symmetry in their model. The adoption of a border tax on imports has two effects on US consumer prices. The direct effect raises these prices, while the indirect effect reduces them by leading to an appreciation of the US dollar. In the presence of dollar pricing, the direct pass-throughof a tax is full,whereas the short-run pass-through of the exchange rate to consumer prices in the United States is low. This asymmetry is responsible for the failure of the Lerner symmetry. The authors noted that dollar pricing is consistent with recent evidence: the dollar appreciated and then depreciated by 10%–12% while border prices remained roughly unchanged. They provide a rationale for dollar pricing as an equilibriumphenomenon. International firms decide to set prices in US dollars because US inputs
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.
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