考虑成本和时间维度的石化项目主要、次要和剩余风险应对策略优化

IF 0.2 Q4 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL Archives for Technical Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-16 DOI:10.7251/afts.2022.1427.033t
Maryam Asl Tabatabay, Saeedeh Asl Tabababay
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引用次数: 0

摘要

整个项目生命周期的风险管理,从最初阶段开始到最后阶段,持续而动态地结束,是任何以项目为导向的组织成功的基本要求之一。为了在项目的各个阶段有效地识别和管理风险,必须在组织的各个层面进行仔细的选择。在某些情况下,实施响应可能会消除风险,但也会给项目带来额外的风险。大多数可用的风险选择方法主要侧重于消除主要风险,而不了解项目实施过程中可能出现的次要和剩余风险。次要风险的发生可能是对主要风险作出反应的活动的直接结果。本研究提出了一个优化模型来选择一级和二级风险的风险应对措施。我们提出的方法与赵方法(2018)的不同之处在于,提出的方法不会导致选择预先确定的策略。该方法考察了应对主要风险和次要风险的时间和成本两个维度。此外,遗传元启发式算法已被用于解决上述维度的问题。
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STRATEGY OPTIMIZATION FOR RESPONDING TO PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND RESIDUAL RISKS CONSIDERING COST AND TIME DIMENSIONS IN PETROCHEMICAL PROJECTS
Risk management throughout the project life cycle, from the initial phase beginning to the final phase, ended continuously and dynamically, is one of the basic requirements for the success of any project-oriented organization. To effectively identify and manage risks at all stages of the project, careful selection must be made at all levels of the organization. In some cases, implementing the response may eliminate the risk but reciprocally create additional risks for the project. Most of the available risk selection methods mainly focus on eliminating the primary risks without understanding the secondary and residual risks that may arise during the project implementation. The occurrence of secondary risk can be a direct result of performing an activity that responds to a primary risk. This study proposes an optimization model to select risk response measures for primary and secondary risks. The difference between our proposed method and Zhao method (2018) will be that the proposed one does not lead to selecting a predetermined strategy. This method examines the two dimensions of time and costs in response to primary and secondary risks. In addition, the genetic metaheuristic algorithm has been used to solve the problem in the dimensions mentioned above.
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来源期刊
Archives for Technical Sciences
Archives for Technical Sciences ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL-
自引率
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发文量
10
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