南亚的高超音速武器:对战略稳定的影响

IF 0.2 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IPRI Journal Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI:10.31945/iprij.210103
A. Sultan, Itfa Khursheed
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引用次数: 0

摘要

新技术的发展及其用于军事手段缩小了技术先进国家和技术不发达国家之间的差距。这可能扰乱了传统的力量平衡,具有不对称军事潜力的国家之间更有可能发生冲突,此外还增加了常规和核纠缠的风险。在南亚,这种危险更加明显,在那里,日益扩大的常规差距加上新的作战理论继续破坏战略稳定,因此,另一方必须加强其“跨域”威慑态势。印度最近测试了高超音速技术验证飞行器(HSTDV),其目的显然是建立其技术先进国家的证书;一旦投入使用,将为巴基斯坦的短程弹道导弹(srbm)提供先发制人的常规反力量打击的选择,以阻止巴基斯坦早期部署其srbm,并为印度的“冷启动”有限作战理论创造空间。作为回应,巴基斯坦可能会制定对策,以确保其全方位威慑(FSD)姿态的完整性。这种行动-反应综合症可能引发新的军备竞赛,增加两个核国家在未来军事危机中误判的风险。本文旨在讨论* Adil Sultan博士是航空航天与安全研究中心(CASS)核与战略事务主任** Itfa Khursheed女士是伊斯兰堡政策研究所驻伊斯兰堡CASS研究员_____________________ @2021。IPRI Journal XXI (1): 61-81 https://doi.org/10.31945/iprij.210103 Adil Sultan和Itfa Khursheed博士2 IPRI Journal 2021高超音速武器领域的持续全球发展;对南亚战略稳定的影响;巴基斯坦很可能
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Hypersonic Weapons in South Asia: Implications for Strategic Stability
The development of new technologies and their use for military means has narrowed the gap between the technologically advanced and less developed countries. This may have disturbed the traditional balance of power with greater prospects of conflict between states with asymmetric military potential, besides increasing the risks of conventional and nuclear entanglement. The dangers are more pronounced in South Asia where growing conventional disparity coupled with new war fighting doctrines continue to strain strategic stability, thus making it imperative for the other side to strengthen its ‘cross domain’ deterrence posture. India’s recent test of Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV), which apparently aims to build its credentials of a technologically advanced country; once operationalised, would proffer an option of a preemptive conventional counterforce strike against Pakistan’s short range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) – to deter Pakistan from the early deployment of its SRBMs and to create space for India’s limited war fighting doctrine of ‘Cold Start.’ In response, Pakistan is likely to develop countermeasures that could ensure the integrity of its Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) posture. This action-reaction syndrome could trigger a new arms race with increased risks of miscalculation in a future military crisis between the two nuclear armed states. This paper aims to discuss * Dr Adil Sultan is a Director Nuclear and Strategic Affairs at Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS) **Ms Itfa Khursheed is a researcher at CASS, Islamabad _____________________ @2021 by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute. IPRI Journal XXI (1): 61-81 https://doi.org/10.31945/iprij.210103 Dr. Adil Sultan and Itfa Khursheed 2 IPRI JOURNAL  2021 the ongoing global developments in the field of hypersonic weapons; its implications for strategic stability in South Asia; and Pakistan’s likely
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IPRI Journal
IPRI Journal INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
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