更正“欧盟公投当晚博彩和货币市场的行为”[Int.J.Forecast.35(1)(2018)371–389]

IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS International Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.12.003
Tom Auld, Oliver Linton
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引用次数: 2

摘要

奥德和林顿(2019)研究了2016年6月24日,即欧盟公投之夜,必发博彩市场和英镑/美元汇率(期货价格)的行为。论文发现,这两个市场似乎都没有效率,但货币市场的效率比博彩市场高一个小时左右。随后发现,投注数据中使用的时间戳是格林尼治标准时间,而不是作者假设的英国夏令时。最新结果显示,这两个市场对公众投票信息进行贴现的时间大致相同。这让人对违反弱市场效率的结论产生了怀疑。然而,市场对投票的贴现率出现了一些较小的偏差。这些都是几分钟左右的时间,表明市场效率低下的说法并不成立,但程度比最初想象的要小得多。
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Corrigendum to “The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum” [Int. J. Forecast. 35 (1) (2018) 371–389]

Auld and Linton (2019) studied the behaviour of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum. The paper found that both markets appeared to be inefficient, but the currency market was around one hour more inefficient than the betting markets. It has subsequently been discovered that the timestamp used in the betting data was supplied in Greenwich Mean Time as opposed to British Summer Time as assumed by the authors. Updated results suggest that both markets took broadly the same amount of time to discount the public vote information. This calls into doubt the conclusion of a violation of weak market efficiency. Some smaller deviations of the rate at which the markets discount the vote are, however, identified. These were of the order of minutes, suggesting that weak market efficiency did not hold, but to a much smaller degree than first thought.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
17.10
自引率
11.40%
发文量
189
审稿时长
77 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Forecasting is a leading journal in its field that publishes high quality refereed papers. It aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers. The journal places strong emphasis on empirical studies, evaluation activities, implementation research, and improving the practice of forecasting. It welcomes various points of view and encourages debate to find solutions to field-related problems. The journal is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and is indexed in Sociological Abstracts, Journal of Economic Literature, Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts, INSPEC, Current Contents, UMI Data Courier, RePEc, Academic Journal Guide, CIS, IAOR, and Social Sciences Citation Index.
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