Environmental security intelligence: the role of US intelligence agencies and science advisory groups in anticipating climate security threats

ABSTRACT Science advisory groups have long played significant roles in federal policy- and decision-making. This article examines the history and importance of science advisory groups in conducting research and advising government administrations on matters of climate change risks and environmental security. Climate change will continue to act as a threat multiplier, amplifying these risks and their effects on security and society. The government science advisory group MEDEA and its contributions to environmental research and national, societal, and environmental security analysis are presented as a model of partnership between the scientific and intelligence communities. The history, research, and environmental expertise of the MEDEA program are discussed in the security context, including an examination of its relationship with the intelligence community. Finally, historical examples are provided to suggest how future science advisory groups can provide informed guidance and contribute to federal security objectives.