{"title":"用排序节点法推进贝叶斯网络条件概率表的构建","authors":"Pekka Laitila, K. Virtanen","doi":"10.1080/03081079.2022.2086541","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"System models based on Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely applied in different areas. This paper facilitates the use of such models by advancing the ranked nodes method (RNM) for constructing conditional probability tables (CPTs) of BNs by expert elicitation. In RNM, the CPT of a child node is generated using a function known as the weight expression and weights of parent nodes that are elicited from the expert. However, there is a lack of exact guidelines for eliciting these parameters which complicates the use of RNM. To mitigate this issue, this paper introduces a novel framework for supporting the RNM parameter elicitation. First, the expert assesses the two most probable states of the child node in scenarios that correspond to extreme states of the parent nodes. Then, a feasible weight expression and a feasible weight set are computationally determined. Finally, the expert selects weight values from this set.","PeriodicalId":50322,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of General Systems","volume":"51 1","pages":"758 - 790"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Advancing construction of conditional probability tables of Bayesian networks with ranked nodes method\",\"authors\":\"Pekka Laitila, K. Virtanen\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/03081079.2022.2086541\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"System models based on Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely applied in different areas. This paper facilitates the use of such models by advancing the ranked nodes method (RNM) for constructing conditional probability tables (CPTs) of BNs by expert elicitation. In RNM, the CPT of a child node is generated using a function known as the weight expression and weights of parent nodes that are elicited from the expert. However, there is a lack of exact guidelines for eliciting these parameters which complicates the use of RNM. To mitigate this issue, this paper introduces a novel framework for supporting the RNM parameter elicitation. First, the expert assesses the two most probable states of the child node in scenarios that correspond to extreme states of the parent nodes. Then, a feasible weight expression and a feasible weight set are computationally determined. Finally, the expert selects weight values from this set.\",\"PeriodicalId\":50322,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of General Systems\",\"volume\":\"51 1\",\"pages\":\"758 - 790\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of General Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/03081079.2022.2086541\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, THEORY & METHODS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of General Systems","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03081079.2022.2086541","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, THEORY & METHODS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Advancing construction of conditional probability tables of Bayesian networks with ranked nodes method
System models based on Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely applied in different areas. This paper facilitates the use of such models by advancing the ranked nodes method (RNM) for constructing conditional probability tables (CPTs) of BNs by expert elicitation. In RNM, the CPT of a child node is generated using a function known as the weight expression and weights of parent nodes that are elicited from the expert. However, there is a lack of exact guidelines for eliciting these parameters which complicates the use of RNM. To mitigate this issue, this paper introduces a novel framework for supporting the RNM parameter elicitation. First, the expert assesses the two most probable states of the child node in scenarios that correspond to extreme states of the parent nodes. Then, a feasible weight expression and a feasible weight set are computationally determined. Finally, the expert selects weight values from this set.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of General Systems is a periodical devoted primarily to the publication of original research contributions to system science, basic as well as applied. However, relevant survey articles, invited book reviews, bibliographies, and letters to the editor are also published.
The principal aim of the journal is to promote original systems ideas (concepts, principles, methods, theoretical or experimental results, etc.) that are broadly applicable to various kinds of systems. The term “general system” in the name of the journal is intended to indicate this aim–the orientation to systems ideas that have a general applicability. Typical subject areas covered by the journal include: uncertainty and randomness; fuzziness and imprecision; information; complexity; inductive and deductive reasoning about systems; learning; systems analysis and design; and theoretical as well as experimental knowledge regarding various categories of systems. Submitted research must be well presented and must clearly state the contribution and novelty. Manuscripts dealing with particular kinds of systems which lack general applicability across a broad range of systems should be sent to journals specializing in the respective topics.