用排序节点法推进贝叶斯网络条件概率表的构建

IF 2.4 4区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, THEORY & METHODS International Journal of General Systems Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI:10.1080/03081079.2022.2086541
Pekka Laitila, K. Virtanen
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引用次数: 3

摘要

基于贝叶斯网络的系统模型在不同领域有着广泛的应用。本文通过提出通过专家启发构建贝叶斯网络条件概率表的排序节点法(RNM),为此类模型的使用提供了便利。在RNM中,子节点的CPT是使用称为权重表达式的函数和从专家那里得出的父节点的权重来生成的。然而,缺乏获取这些参数的确切指南,这使RNM的使用变得复杂。为了缓解这个问题,本文介绍了一种支持RNM参数启发的新框架。首先,专家评估在与父节点的极端状态相对应的场景中子节点的两种最可能的状态。然后,通过计算确定了可行权表达式和可行权集。最后,专家从这个集合中选择权重值。
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Advancing construction of conditional probability tables of Bayesian networks with ranked nodes method
System models based on Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely applied in different areas. This paper facilitates the use of such models by advancing the ranked nodes method (RNM) for constructing conditional probability tables (CPTs) of BNs by expert elicitation. In RNM, the CPT of a child node is generated using a function known as the weight expression and weights of parent nodes that are elicited from the expert. However, there is a lack of exact guidelines for eliciting these parameters which complicates the use of RNM. To mitigate this issue, this paper introduces a novel framework for supporting the RNM parameter elicitation. First, the expert assesses the two most probable states of the child node in scenarios that correspond to extreme states of the parent nodes. Then, a feasible weight expression and a feasible weight set are computationally determined. Finally, the expert selects weight values from this set.
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来源期刊
International Journal of General Systems
International Journal of General Systems 工程技术-计算机:理论方法
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
20.00%
发文量
38
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: International Journal of General Systems is a periodical devoted primarily to the publication of original research contributions to system science, basic as well as applied. However, relevant survey articles, invited book reviews, bibliographies, and letters to the editor are also published. The principal aim of the journal is to promote original systems ideas (concepts, principles, methods, theoretical or experimental results, etc.) that are broadly applicable to various kinds of systems. The term “general system” in the name of the journal is intended to indicate this aim–the orientation to systems ideas that have a general applicability. Typical subject areas covered by the journal include: uncertainty and randomness; fuzziness and imprecision; information; complexity; inductive and deductive reasoning about systems; learning; systems analysis and design; and theoretical as well as experimental knowledge regarding various categories of systems. Submitted research must be well presented and must clearly state the contribution and novelty. Manuscripts dealing with particular kinds of systems which lack general applicability across a broad range of systems should be sent to journals specializing in the respective topics.
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