The Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia: A Mixed Methods Examination

ABSTRACT How did the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) shape the volume and destination of Chinese greenfield foreign direct investments (GFDI)? This article examines Chinese GFDI in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Myanmar using quantitative and qualitative data. Results show first, that the BRI led to a surge of investments by firms with stronger government affiliation in sectors related to infrastructure and connectivity. In contrast, the BRI had limited effect on firms in consumption-related industries that are primarily small and privately owned. Second, the change in sectoral destination of Chinese GFDI after the BRI is explained by the strength of diplomatic bilateral relations, which generate government support for investments in specific industries, and by host market conditions, such as favourable regulatory environments and positive economy outlook.