竞相加入欧元区:为什么拉脱维亚先于立陶宛加入欧元区

Anastazija Markevičiūtė, V. Kuokštis
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引用次数: 19

摘要

为什么拉脱维亚在2014年加入欧元区,而立陶宛在一年后才加入?这两个国家的不同经历令人惊讶。拉脱维亚在2008年至2010年期间遭遇了更为严重的经济危机,在满足财政标准方面,这给采用欧元带来了更大的挑战。本文认为,尽管在危机期间和危机之后,两国采用欧元的意愿都有所增加,但拉脱维亚寻求采用欧元的意愿比立陶宛更强烈、更明确、更一致。在研究这种差异时,我们认为,依赖于总体经济成本和收益、身份考虑、地缘政治考虑、社会支持和利益集团偏好,并不能对这些国家采用欧元意愿的波动做出令人满意的解释。相反,我们建议这种意愿的变化可以追溯到国内政治进程,例如选举的时间和结果以及经济危机影响的程度。
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Race to the Eurozone: why Latvia joined before Lithuania
Abstract Why did Latvia join the Eurozone in 2014, while Lithuania only acceded a year later? The two countries’ diverging experiences are surprising. Latvia suffered a more pronounced economic crisis from 2008 to 2010, which created greater euro adoption challenges in terms of meeting fiscal criteria. This article argues that, while the willingness to adopt the euro increased in both countries during and after the crisis, the will to seek euro adoption was stronger, clearer and more consistent in Latvia than in Lithuania. In examining this divergence, we argue that relying on aggregate economic costs and benefits, identity considerations, geopolitical considerations, societal support, and interest group preferences does not produce a satisfactory explanation of fluctuations in these countries’ willingness to adopt the euro. Instead, we propose that changes in this willingness can be traced to domestic political processes, such as the timing and results of elections and the magnitude of the economic crisis’s impact.
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