Future effects of small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, on honey bee colony in Turkey based on temperature factor using a mathematical model

Abstract Biological invasions are becoming the most serious global environmental threats under changing climate. Beekeeping has faced such invasions with the changing climatic. One of these invaders is the small hive beetle (SHB), which has not yet been encountered in some countries and is currently at a preventable level. SHB can be a highly destructive pest for honey bee colonies, as it damages honey bee comb and larvae, as well as honey and pollen. Although SHB threatens honey bee populations, the impact of climate change on the severity of infestation and its growth rate are still unknown. This apicultural issue is theoretically addressed by using a coupled honey bee–SHB mathematical model in which the rate of SHB growth varies with time to account for changing climate. When the temperature rises, honey bee colonies collapse due to an increase in SHB growth rate, and the severity of the infestation also plays a role in the colony’s survival. This study suggests that in the future, global warming will increase colony losses from SHB and may increase the risk of SHBs spreading to regions where it is currently absent, and precautions should be taken to prevent transmission.