修昔底德陷阱:中美贸易战的另一种解释

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1177/0974910119896644

I. Moosa

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引用次数: 10

摘要

目前美国和中国之间的贸易战被认为是由美国希望减少双边贸易逆差的愿望所激发的，假设减少逆差可以促进经济增长。这个有缺陷的命题表明了对国民收入同一性和宏观经济学基本原理的严重误解。征收关税不会减少贸易逆差，因为这一进程顺利进行所需的假设和条件是不现实和反事实的。提出经济修昔底德陷阱的概念是为了解释为什么贸易战是由美国对中国经济实力上升的担忧引发的。

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The Thucydides Trap as an Alternative Explanation for the US–China Trade War

The current trade war between the USA and China is perceived to be motivated by the US desire to curtail the bilateral trade deficit, on the assumption that reducing the deficit boosts economic growth. This flawed proposition indicates gross misunderstanding of the national income identity and the basic principles of macroeconomics. The imposition of tariffs will not reduce the trade deficit as the assumptions and conditions required for a smooth working of the process are unrealistic and counterfactual. The notion of an economic Thucydides trap is put forward to explain why the trade war is motivated by US apprehension about China’s rising economic power.

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来源期刊

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.