Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne illness, is increasing in prevalence worldwide, and experts have warned of the imminence of an outbreak in the Southern Gulf Region of the United States (U.S.). Tourist destinations such as Miami and Orlando in Florida are among the most likely places for an outbreak to occur. The decline in attractiveness of a destination due to the outbreak, combined with the restrictive measures implemented to combat the outbreak, have the potential to significantly impact tourism-dependent local economies. This study is unique in that it estimates the potential economic impacts on tourism of an unprecedented outbreak, in this case CHIKV events in the U.S. For this, declines in tourism that followed the 2016 Zika virus outbreak in the Wynwood area of Miami, Florida are assessed to provide insights on the potential size and scope of the shock on tourism resulting from a CHIKV event. Results suggest that a CHIKV outbreak can lead to losses of approximately US$ 30 million in sales and nearly 250 jobs in the Wynwood area alone. Other popular tourist destinations such as Orlando could suffer significant losses of more than 2,500 jobs and US$ 300 million in sales. Estimating the potential losses associated with tourism declines resulting from a CHIKV outbreak provides data and insights to decision-makers that are considering policy measures aimed at preventing, preparing for, or mitigating the impacts of such events. This is particularly relevant as new advances are being made in the development of a CHIKV vaccine.