Violent extremism risk assessment and screening analysis: applicability, challenges, and new developments

ABSTRACT This article reviews knowledge related to violent extremism risk assessment, discusses challenges in its use and identifies new developments. Several violent extremism risk assessment tools have been developed over the past decade. The application of such tools in national security, forensic and community practice as well as court proceedings has been documented. The benefits, constraints and interpretation of violent extremism risk assessments are considered. The advantages of a less complex approach to supplement the current time intensive in-depth risk assessment have been identified. Benefits include the early identification and screening of relevant populations including those in the pre-crime space. The way court appointed experts benefit from the included risk indicators and structured professional judgment methodology is also clarified. The paper identifies how risk assessment approaches can be used to inform individualised intervention programs, assess rehabilitation program efficacy as well as identify the risk and threat status of an individual. The new short analytical approach referred to as the Violent Extremism Screening Analysis (VESA) is introduced, developed by the article authors and based on their insights and experience in violent extremism risk assessment. A recommendation is the need to pilot the newly developed short screening approach to clarify applicability and relevance.