宏观经济因素对金砖国家证券交易所的影响

A. Borodin, G. Panaedova, T. Kulagovskaya, E. Samoylik
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摘要

. 关于股票市场的作用及其对个体经济的影响,有许多科学研究。然而,宏观经济因素与证券交易有效性之间的关系尚未得到科学家的充分研究。分析这一关系有助于预测证券市场的波动率,这对投资者和政府机构都具有重要意义。也没有对金砖国家宏观经济因素的跨国分析。在本文的框架内,作者分析了宏观经济因素对金砖国家股票市场的影响。S & &;P指数,以及汇率,被发现是股票市场的重要决定因素。重要的是,汇率对大宗商品出口国(巴西除外,巴西自2008年以来一直是净进口国)的影响是积极的,对其他国家的影响是消极的。通过研究,作者获得了以下有充分根据的结果,即金砖国家面临的一系列因素相似,单个因素的影响程度具有可比性;唯一的例外是中国股市——对于后者,得到的是其他因素估计,模型质量要低得多;金砖国家股市的关键决定因素是美国股市动态、汇率、即时效应和选定的货币因素;对俄罗斯、南非和巴西而言,大宗商品价格对股市动态有积极影响;国内非货币因素如GDP或近似GDP的指标影响不大;各国股市的误差修正效应都很低,即不寻求回归长期均衡。
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IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE BRICS STOCK EXCHANGE
. There are many scientific studies on the role of stock markets and their impact on individual economies. However, the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the effectiveness of stock exchanges has not been fully studied by scien-tists. Analysis of the relationship can help predict volatility on stock exchanges, which is of great importance to investors and government entities alike. There is also no cross-country analysis of macroeconomic factors in BRICS countries. Within the framework of this article, the authors conducted an analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock markets of BRICS countries. The dynamics of the S & P index, as well as the exchange rate, were found to be significant determinants for stock markets. Importantly, the impact of the exchange rate has been positive for commodity exporting countries (except Brazil, which has been a net importer since 2008) and negative for other countries. As a result of the study, the authors obtained the following well-founded results, namely, that BRICS countries were exposed to a similar set of factors, the scale of influence of individual factors being comparable; The exception is China ‘s stock market - for the latter, other factor estimates and much lower model quality were obtained; Key determinants of the BRICS stock market are US stock market dynamics, exchange rate, instant effect and selected monetary factors; For Russia, South Africa and Brazil, commodity prices have a positive impact on stock market dynamics; There is little impact of domestic non-monetary factors such as GDP or indices approximating GDP; Stock markets of all countries have very low error correction effects, i.e. do not seek a return to long-term equilibrium.
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