台湾政党认同之稳定与变迁:生命周期、世代与时期效应之检视

IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Journal of East Asian Studies Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI:10.1017/jea.2020.45
Rou-lan Chen
{"title":"台湾政党认同之稳定与变迁:生命周期、世代与时期效应之检视","authors":"Rou-lan Chen","doi":"10.1017/jea.2020.45","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article builds on the theoretical debate over age, period, and cohort effects (APC) and explores how these factors might affect Taiwan's partisan stability. We conducted a two-level multinomial logit random effects model using survey data from 1991 to 2020 to disentangle the APC effects. Our findings challenge Converse's core assumption that partisanship strengthens with age. As a new democracy, Taiwan's party affiliations remain fluid, and we do find evidence of period effects, particularly associated with cross-Strait crises that favor the DPP. However, generational replacement is the most significant factor driving party identity changes in Taiwan. With generational replacement, the Kuomintang is burdened by the image of a century-old party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had previously fared better among young cohorts but has recently lost its support from millennials. The youngest generation increasingly refuses to associate with the traditional political parties. It seems reasonable to expect that the new generational forces will restructure the Blue–Green cleavage and expand the ideological diversity of Taiwan's party system.","PeriodicalId":45829,"journal":{"name":"Journal of East Asian Studies","volume":"21 1","pages":"331 - 352"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"STABILITY AND CHANGES IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN TAIWAN: AN EXAMINATION OF LIFE CYCLE, COHORT, AND PERIOD EFFECTS\",\"authors\":\"Rou-lan Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/jea.2020.45\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract This article builds on the theoretical debate over age, period, and cohort effects (APC) and explores how these factors might affect Taiwan's partisan stability. We conducted a two-level multinomial logit random effects model using survey data from 1991 to 2020 to disentangle the APC effects. Our findings challenge Converse's core assumption that partisanship strengthens with age. As a new democracy, Taiwan's party affiliations remain fluid, and we do find evidence of period effects, particularly associated with cross-Strait crises that favor the DPP. However, generational replacement is the most significant factor driving party identity changes in Taiwan. With generational replacement, the Kuomintang is burdened by the image of a century-old party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had previously fared better among young cohorts but has recently lost its support from millennials. The youngest generation increasingly refuses to associate with the traditional political parties. It seems reasonable to expect that the new generational forces will restructure the Blue–Green cleavage and expand the ideological diversity of Taiwan's party system.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45829,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of East Asian Studies\",\"volume\":\"21 1\",\"pages\":\"331 - 352\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of East Asian Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/jea.2020.45\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of East Asian Studies","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jea.2020.45","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文以年龄、时期、群体效应的理论争论为基础,探讨这些因素对台湾党派稳定的影响。我们使用1991年至2020年的调查数据进行了两级多项式logit随机效应模型,以理清APC效应。我们的发现挑战了匡威的核心假设,即党派之争会随着年龄的增长而加剧。作为一个新的民主国家,台湾的党派关系仍然不稳定,我们确实发现了时代效应的证据,尤其是与有利于民进党的两岸危机有关的证据。然而,代际更替是推动台湾政党身份转变的最重要因素。随着世代更替,国民党背负着百年政党的形象。民进党此前在年轻群体中表现较好,但最近失去了千禧一代的支持。最年轻的一代越来越拒绝与传统政党交往。新一代势力将重组蓝绿分裂,扩大台湾政党体系的意识形态多样性,这似乎是合理的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
STABILITY AND CHANGES IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN TAIWAN: AN EXAMINATION OF LIFE CYCLE, COHORT, AND PERIOD EFFECTS
Abstract This article builds on the theoretical debate over age, period, and cohort effects (APC) and explores how these factors might affect Taiwan's partisan stability. We conducted a two-level multinomial logit random effects model using survey data from 1991 to 2020 to disentangle the APC effects. Our findings challenge Converse's core assumption that partisanship strengthens with age. As a new democracy, Taiwan's party affiliations remain fluid, and we do find evidence of period effects, particularly associated with cross-Strait crises that favor the DPP. However, generational replacement is the most significant factor driving party identity changes in Taiwan. With generational replacement, the Kuomintang is burdened by the image of a century-old party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had previously fared better among young cohorts but has recently lost its support from millennials. The youngest generation increasingly refuses to associate with the traditional political parties. It seems reasonable to expect that the new generational forces will restructure the Blue–Green cleavage and expand the ideological diversity of Taiwan's party system.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of East Asian Studies
Journal of East Asian Studies SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
15.40%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: Experts from around the globe come together in this important peer-reviewed forum to present compelling social science research on the entire East Asia region. Topics include democratic governance, military security, political culture, economic cooperation, human rights, and environmental concerns. Thought-provoking book reviews enhance each issue. Want more information information on Journal of East Asian Studies? Sign up for our E-Alerts for regular updates.
期刊最新文献
Authoritarian Ruling Parties' Recruitment Dilemma: Evidence from China Commercial Casualties: Political Boycotts and International Disputes Resentment and Polarization in Indonesia When Authoritarian Legacies Matter: Constructive and Blind National Pride and Voter Turnout in New Democracies Pretending to Support? Duterte's Popularity and Democratic Backsliding in the Philippines
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1