个人时间折现因素与风险相关行为的关系分析

Horia Tigau
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引用次数: 0

摘要

时间贴现因子是经济学中一个广泛讨论的主题。为了收集折扣行为的数据,采用了几种方法;其中最受欢迎的,也是在本文中使用的,是柯比的货币选择问卷(MCQ)。然后对问卷中的二进制回答进行处理,以估计延迟折扣的k个参数。比较和评估了两种估计方法——Kaplan的Autoscorer和Wileyto的Logistic回归模型。Rohrmann的风险取向问卷使用参与者的反应来量化风险相关行为的表现。在本文的最后分析中,考虑了k的逻辑回归估计和风险导向因素,以及人口统计学变量,以检查相关性和趋势。风险导向和时间贴现之间没有发现显著的联系。然而,在人口统计学层面上有几个显著的结果——例如,儿童时期的风险厌恶和收入水平之间的正相关性为0.166(p=0.02)。
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Analysing the Relationship Between Personal Time Discounting Factors and Risk Related Behaviour
Time discounting factors represent a widely-discussed subject in economics. Several methods are employed in order to collect data on discounting behavior; one of the most popular, also used in this article, is Kirby's Monetary Choice Questionnaire (MCQ). The binary responses in the questionnaire are then processed in order to estimate the k parameters of delay discounting. Two methods of estimation are compared and evaluated – Kaplan's Autoscorer and Wileyto's Logistic Regression Model. Rohrmann's Risk Orientation Questionnaire uses participants' responses to quantify the manifestation of risk related behaviors. In the final analysis of this article, the logistic regression estimates of k and the risk orientation factors are taken into consideration, together with demographic variables, to check for correlations and trends. There were no significant links found between risk orientation and time-discounting. However, there were several significant results at demographic level – for example, a positive correlation of 0.166 between risk aversion and income level during childhood (p = 0.02).
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