EECCA中的欧洲一体化进程:依赖关系和驱动因素

Q1 Social Sciences Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies Pub Date : 2023-04-08 DOI:10.29333/ejecs/1484
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究对1989-2020年和2000-2020年世界银行和国际货币基金组织的数据进行了比较定量和定性分析。在这种分析的基础上建立了中欧和东欧11个国家(取决于其出口和债务)经济增长的双因素线性计量经济模型。该研究还依赖于皮尤研究中心2019年春季全球态度调查的数据,该调查涉及欧盟公民对一体化的态度。研究结果被用来检验欧洲一体化对中欧和东欧国家的原因和后果。自2004年欧盟第一次扩大以来,中欧和东欧经济体相对于欧盟的总权重从6.7%增加到2020年的10.8%。另一方面,没有一个加入欧盟的国家达到全欧洲的劳动生产率。对前东欧集团其他国家可能加入的评估显示,哈萨克斯坦拥有最有利的经济环境,其2020年的生产率达到欧盟平均水平的58.4%。在这方面,哈萨克斯坦的表现优于保加利亚,保加利亚的这一参数为53.5%。1995-2000年期间,所研究的国家集团中人均国内总产值最低和最高水平之比的倍数为6.3至7.7倍。在第一波加入欧盟15年后,这一数字已降至2.5倍。在计量经济模型的基础上提出了减少区域经济不平等的建议。
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European Integration Processes in EECCA: Dependencies and Drivers
The study was conducted using comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of World Bank and International Monetary Fund data for 1989-2020 and 2000-2020. Two-factor linear econometric models of economic growth in 11 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (depending on their exports and debt) were built on the basis of such analysis. The study also relied on data from the Pew Research Center's Spring 2019 Global Attitudes Survey regarding EU citizens’ attitudes toward integration. The research findings were used to examine the causes and consequences of European integration for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Since 2004, when the first wave of EU enlargement took place, the combined weight of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe in relation to the EU has increased from 6.7% to 10.8% in 2020. On the other hand, none of the countries that have joined the EU have reached Europe-wide labor productivity. Assessment of the possible accession of other countries of the former eastern bloc revealed that Kazakhstan, where productivity in 2020 reached 58.4% of the average achieved in the EU, has the most enabling economic environment. In this context, Kazakhstan outperformed Bulgaria, where such a parameter amounted to 53.5%. During 1995-2000, the multiple of the ratio between the minimum and maximum levels of per capita GDP in the group of countries under study ranged from 6.3 to 7.7 times. Fifteen years after the first wave of accession to the EU, this figure has decreased to 2.5 times. Proposals to reduce regional economic inequality based on the econometric models have been developed.
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来源期刊
Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies
Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies Social Sciences-Cultural Studies
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
47
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