大型建设项目的可持续性风险评估

IF 1.9 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Built Environment Project and Asset Management Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI:10.1108/bepam-10-2022-0153
Cansu Coşkun, I. Dikmen, M. T. Birgonul
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的大型项目是大规模的长期投资。可持续建设目标的三大支柱,即社会、环境和经济,应纳入大型项目风险管理,以确保长期成功。为此,开发了一种风险评估方法,即大型项目可持续建设目标的风险评估方法(RAMSCOM)。设计/方法论/方法RAMSCOM是根据最新概念开发的,并通过广泛的文献综述确定了相关和关键的可持续性目标和风险。层次分析法(AHP)和交叉影响分析法(CIA)用于确定和量化与可持续性目标重要性有关的威胁。RAMSCOM的适用性在一个真正的大型项目中得到了证明。调查结果表明,可持续性风险评估需要整合经济、环境、社会目标,并分析风险因素的交叉影响。相互关联的威胁、脆弱性和目标的可视化有可能支持风险缓解决策,以实现可持续性目标。研究局限性/含义该方法是根据关于可持续发展目标和风险的详细文献调查结果制定的。RAMSCOM在三位专家意见的协助下,在一个项目上进行了测试。考虑到大型项目的独特性质,案例项目的调查结果不能直接概括为各种大型项目。实际意义决策者可以使用RAMSCOM来评估大型项目的可持续性风险,并以可视化和量化的方法为最脆弱和重要的可持续目标制定风险管理计划,以确保大型项目的长期可持续性。独创性/价值理论贡献是一种新的风险评估方法,它整合了所有维度可持续性,并考虑到可持续性目标的优先事项、相互关系和风险,量化其脆弱性。RAMSCOM中使用的可持续性维度、目标和风险可以对其他旨在开发类似方法的研究人员有用。
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Sustainability risk assessment in mega construction projects
PurposeMegaprojects are large-scale and long-term investments. Three pillars of sustainable construction objectives, namely, social, environmental and economic, should be integrated into megaproject risk management to ensure long-term success. A risk assessment method, Risk Assessment Method for Sustainable Construction Objectives in Megaprojects (RAMSCOM), was developed for this purpose.Design/methodology/approachRAMSCOM was developed based on the latest concepts and identifying relevant and critical sustainability objectives and risks through an extensive literature review. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) were used to determine and quantify the threats regarding the importance of the sustainability objectives. The applicability of RAMSCOM was demonstrated on a real megaproject.FindingsThe findings revealed that sustainability risk assessment requires integration of economic, environmental, social objectives and analysis of cross-impacts of risk factors. Visualization of interrelated threats, vulnerabilities and objectives has a potential to support risk mitigation decisions to achieve sustainability goals.Research limitations/implicationsThe method has been developed based on the findings from a detailed literature survey on sustainability objectives and risks. RAMSCOM was tested on a single project with the assistance of three experts' views. Findings from the case project cannot be directly generalised for various megaprojects considering the unique nature of megaprojects.Practical implicationsDecision-makers can use RAMSCOM to assess sustainability risks in megaprojects and develop risk management plans for the most vulnerable and important sustainable objectives in a visual and quantified approach to ensure megaproject's sustainability in the long-term.Originality/valueThe theoretical contribution is a novel risk assessment method that integrates all dimensions of sustainability and quantifies the vulnerability of sustainability objectives considering their priorities, interrelations and risks. Sustainability dimensions, objectives and risks used in RAMSCOM can be useful for other researchers aiming to develop similar methods.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
9.10%
发文量
41
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