经济失衡条件下影响银行重组的宏观经济因素

L. Prymostka, I. Krasnova, V. Lavreniuk, O. Prymostka, Oksana Chepizhko
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引用次数: 1

摘要

Іn在经济日益不平衡的背景下,银行改组的目标正在改变并获得新的内容,这增加了宏观经济因素的相关性。本文旨在通过构建类似Kohonen图的神经网络来识别宏观经济因素对重组方式选择的影响。应用聚类分析方法建立了Kohonen自组织映射类型的神经网络。因此,已允许四个集群。第一类包括发展中国家。最常见的方法是并购协议和回购操作。具有优先影响的因素包括人均国内总产值高、城市人口占比不断增加以及税收可观。第二类包括发展中国家,对它们来说,部分吸收和收购固定资产等合并方法是优先事项。在主要影响因素中,值得强调的是商品贸易、通货膨胀和GDP平减指数。第三类包括高度发达的发展中国家,其中股票回购协议的主导地位主要与外国直接投资的份额、GDP总量和税收总量有关。第四个集群主要包括发达国家,它们不包括在第三个集群中。由于大量的国内信贷、外国直接投资、GDP和相当大份额的总积累的决定性影响,几乎所有的重组方法在这些国家都很常见(并购、回购可以在最常见的交易中被挑出来)。
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MACROECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING ON THE REORGANIZATION OF BANKS IN THE CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC IMBALANCES
Іn the context of increasing economic imbalances, the goals of bank reorganization are being transformed and are acquiring new content, which increases the relevance of macroeconomic factors. The article is aimed at identifying the impact of macroeconomic factors on the choice of reorganization method by building a neural network like the Kohonen map. A cluster analysis method has been applied to build a neural network of the type of self-organization maps of Kohonen. As a result, has allowed four clusters. The first cluster includes developing countries. The most common methods are M&A agreements and buyback operations. Among the priority factors of influence are a high level of GDP per capita, a growing share of the urban population, and significant tax revenues. The second cluster includes developing countries, for which consolidation methods such as partial absorption, and acquisition of fixed assets are a priority. Among the main factors influencing, it is worth highlighting commodity trade, inflation, and the GDP deflator. The third cluster includes highly developed, developing countries, for which the dominance of share buyback agreements, which is primarily related to the share of foreign direct investments, the volume of GDP and the volume of tax revenues. The fourth cluster includes mainly developed countries, that are not included in the third cluster. Due to the determining influence of significant volumes of domestic crediting, foreign direct investments, GDP and a significant share of gross accumulation, practically all methods of reorganization are common in these countries (M&A, buybacks can be singled out among the most common transactions).
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