The Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan: coordination and conditionality

ABSTRACT As one of the greatest beneficiaries of the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) recovery package, and given its low past absorption capacity of European Structural and Investment Funds and lacklustre implementation rates of Country-Specific Recommendations within the European Semester, in 2022, Italy is at the centre of the attention of its European partners. What are the chances of success of the Mediterranean country, which has disproportionately suffered from the fallouts of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic? The article tries to assess the odds by looking at the Italian case from two perspectives. First, it evaluates Italy’s past performance in light of the several modifications to the conditionality that underpins the NGEU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. Second, it elaborates on the implications of the governance structure introduced by Mario Draghi’s government to implement Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The evaluation yields mixed results. Considering that several – but not all – aspects of EU conditionality have been strengthened, this may force Italy, as much as other member states, more closely to follow supranational recommendations. Yet, the risk that path-dependent shortcomings in the reform and absorption capacity of the country may prevail is great. Moreover, the new, very centralized governance structure may generate implementation problems, as sub-national actors have been somehow side-lined, against European advice.