时间至关重要:恐怖分子获取信贷的驱动因素是时间和竞争

IF 2.3 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Terrorism and Political Violence Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI:10.1080/09546553.2022.2035364
T. M. Hansen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管人们普遍关注恐怖主义的传播功能,但恐怖分子经常放弃对其袭击负责。那么为什么恐怖分子不承认他们的袭击呢?试图回答这个问题的学者主要集中在群体和目标的差异上。我提出了另一种理论,强调时间性的重要性。直观地说,随着时间的推移,随着群体的加入,口头责任声明的效用应该会改变,因为新兴群体不能依赖于先前建立的声誉。随着时间的推移,恐怖分子的竞争水平进一步影响口头上的信用获取——尤其是当竞争对手分享攻击风格时——导致相对于竞争环境,恐怖分子垄断的信用获取随着时间的推移而减少。我通过20世纪60年代至70年代加拿大和爱尔兰的案例研究来探索这些动态。加拿大是一个垄断案例,而爱尔兰的案例则经历了广泛的集团内部和集团间竞争。对报纸上的文章进行编码后,我在加拿大事件数据库中添加了一种口头信用衡量标准,并将其与国内恐怖主义受害者的数据并列。结果显示了预期的新来者动态,支持了一个时间理论,但无论内部还是内部的竞争都没有显示出任何影响,尽管最可能的情况是这样的。
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Time Is of the Essence: Temporality and Competition as Drivers of Terrorist Credit-Taking
ABSTRACT Despite widespread focus on the communicative function of terrorism, terrorists frequently forgo claiming responsibility for their attacks. So why don’t terrorists claim their attacks? The scholars who have attempted to answer this question have primarily focused on group- and target-based differences. I propose an alternative theory, emphasizing the importance of temporality. Intuitively, the passing of time following group entry should change the utility of verbal claims of responsibility as an emerging group cannot rely on a previously established reputation. Levels of terrorist competition over time further influence verbal credit-taking-especially when competitors share attack styles-leading to decreased credit-taking over time in terrorist monopolies relative to competitive settings. I explore these dynamics through case-studies of Canada and Ireland during the 1960–1970s. Canada poses a monopoly case, whereas the Irish case experienced extensive intra- and inter-group competition. Coding newspaper articles, I appended the Canadian Incident Database with a measure of verbal credit-taking and juxtaposed it with Domestic Terrorist Victims data. Results show the expected newcomer dynamic, backing a temporal theory, yet neither intra- nor inter-group competition showed any effect despite the most-likely nature of the cases.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
87
期刊介绍: Terrorism and Political Violence advances scholarship on a broad range of issues associated with terrorism and political violence, including subjects such as: the political meaning of terrorist activity, violence by rebels and by states, the links between political violence and organized crime, protest, rebellion, revolution, the influence of social networks, and the impact on human rights. The journal draws upon many disciplines and theoretical perspectives as well as comparative approaches to provide some of the most groundbreaking work in a field that has hitherto lacked rigour. Terrorism and Political Violence features symposia and edited volumes to cover an important topic in depth. Subjects have included: terrorism and public policy; religion and violence; political parties and terrorism; technology and terrorism; and right-wing terrorism. The journal is essential reading for all academics, decision-makers, and security specialists concerned with understanding political violence.
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