Arroyo formation impacts on an early dryland agricultural community in Northeastern Utah, USA

Indigenous Fremont farmers in Cub Creek, a part of northeastern Utah's Dinosaur National Monument, occupied the northern ecological margin of maize cultivation in western North America from A.D. 300 to 1300. Agriculture in Cub Creek was a response to multidecadal precipitation variability, but when precipitation stabilized between A.D. 750 and 1050, agricultural conditions improved and populations expanded to form villages along the floodplains of local dryland streams. Did the very same conditions (i.e., decreased precipitation variability) that allowed the growth of agricultural societies make them simultaneously vulnerable to arroyo formation, a key geomorphic risk to floodplain agriculturalists? Preliminary results from Cub Creek show that rapid sedimentation punctuated by episodic arroyo formation characterized the last 2000 years. We use stratigraphic and chronological evidence formalized in a Bayesian age model to develop a set of working hypotheses that a 2.5 m-deep discontinuous arroyo formed before either A.D. 1020 or A.D. 1275. The earlier age corresponds with occupation of the Cub Creek village, while the later age corresponds with the end of Fremont agriculture in Cub Creek, and demonstrates regional synchronicity with arroyo formation across the Colorado Plateau. A second arroyo formed before A.D. 1490, indicating rapid alluvial cycling in Cub Creek. We conclude that floodplain instability and arroyo formation combined with the return of the dominant multidecadal precipitation variability regime beginning at A.D. 1050 was a key constraint on the growth potential of local populations. These findings have potential implications for the development of early Indigenous dryland agricultural systems throughout the interior of western North America.