台湾游击队潜力分析——真实的可能性还是幼稚的概念?

IF 0.3 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Vojenske Rozhledy-Czech Military Review Pub Date : 2023-03-08 DOI:10.3849/2336-2995.32.2023.01.035-049
Richard Ouběhlický
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引用次数: 0

摘要

现有关于中国和台湾的研究主要涉及双边关系、军事学说等,对潜在的中国-台湾战争的后果不太关注。本文以中国统治台湾为例,考察了准军事游击队产生和活动的条件。该分析基于当前的总体、社会经济、政治、地理和技术环境。分析的实质部分也是关于城市游击队潜力的论证。本文基于数据、信息、民意调查以及与主要研究问题相关的学术和分析文本。这些问题是游击队的潜力、可持续性和有效性。文章的研究结果表明,游击队出现的可能性相对较高,主要是因为台湾的适宜环境以及基于现有变量的可能有效性和可持续性,但这也可能限制这种可能性。
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Analysis of Taiwan Guerilla Potential – A Real Possibility or a Naive Notion?
Existing research about China and Taiwan deals primarily with bilateral relations, military doctrines, etc. They don't pay much attention to the consequences of the potential China-Taiwan war. The article examines conditions for emerging and activity of guerillas with paramilitant signs in the case of China's domination over Taiwan. The analysis is based on the present general, socio-economic, political, geographical, and technological environment. A substantial part of the analysis is also argumentation about the potential of urban guerilla. The article is based on data, pieces of information, polls and academic and analytical texts relevant to the main research questions. Those questions are the potential for emerging, sustainability, and effectiveness of guerilla. The article comes with findings, that argue the relatively high potential for the emergence of guerilla primarily because of the suitable environment in Taiwan and possible effectiveness and sustainability based on existing variables, which can however also limit this potential.
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来源期刊
Vojenske Rozhledy-Czech Military Review
Vojenske Rozhledy-Czech Military Review INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
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